Abu Rumman and Abu Haniyeh analyze Al-Qaeda crises and scenarios for the next phase
The Politics and Society Institute published a strategic analysis of Al-Zawahiri’s murder and its implications for the status of Al-Qaeda on the one hand, and the possible consequences, dimensions, and repercussions for it on the other. The Jordanian scholars and specialists of terrorism and extremism, Dr. Muhammad Abu Rumman and Hassan Abu Haniyeh indicated that the crisis of the relationship between Al-Qaeda and Taliban, and the ongoing disengagement process, implicitly and unofficially, may be behind the breach of the security system surrounding Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri, whom the US intelligence service has been tracking and monitoring daily for two decades until it finally found his location and killed him, after a long period.
The paper, entitled “Al-Qaeda after killing of Al-Zawahiri: Navigating with crises…” indicated that there is a deep internal disagreement inside the Taliban movement, after its return to power about the attitude toward Al-Qaeda, the realist wing argues for the necessity of disengaging from Al-Qaeda, while the Haqqani network was the one who adhered to provide protection for Al-Qaeda leaders, which indicates that Al-Zawahiri was killed in one of the important and well-known residential neighborhoods in the center of the capital, Kabul.
The researchers concluded that Al-Zawahiri murder amid the major crises of the organization is a severe blow, exceeding the former leaders’ killing, considering the leadership crisis experienced by the organization, even during the period of Al-Zawahiri himself, in which ISIS defected from AlQaeda, thereafter armed conflicts between them surfaced, in addition to the structural division among the global jihadist supporters of the two organizations, after that one of the most prominent branches rebelled against Al-Zawahiri, Haya’t Tahrir Al-Sham, which afterward defected from Al-Qaeda, consequently the emergence of the ideological war once again between the two leaders of the organizations.
Currently, it is difficult to predict who will succeed Al-Zawahiri under the divisions, tensions, defections, and suspicions inside Al-Qaida, If expectations towards the preference of Saif Al-Adl, then there are necessarily problems and challenges that faced this option, particularly resentment feeling of the Egyptian group dominance on the leadership of Al-Qaeda, which the wings and other trends raged of.
Abu Rumman and Abu Haniya don’t restrict the study to defining the crises of leadership, internal rebellion and disengagement with Taliban, but rather the crisis of the strategic vision and ideological approach, which Al-Qaeda also suffer from confusion, apparently emerged by the reviews of Osama bin Laden before his murder, who called for more moderation, realism and partnership with the local communities, which leads to the rebellion of the branches, and what ISIS produced – on the other hand, a new approach based on strength, empowerment and domination, through which it was able to attract tens of thousands of young people, while apparently there is a status of division, retreat, and disintegration among Al-Qaeda and its supporters in different regions of the world.
Therefore the most relevant question is if Al-Qaeda will continue to strengthen the independence of the various branches, and restricted its role to general guidance and adoption; thus, Al-Qaeda becomes merely a registered trademark for everyone who adopts the slogans of the organization and declares allegiance to it, or will there be a review of the approach to the relationship with the branches and the strengthening of once again the relationship with the central AlQaeda, and what is the possibility of that when the Al-Qaeda does not find a safe haven after the Taliban turned against the organization!
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