Slide 2

Many observers of the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel have been questioning the positions of China and Russia-to which one may add the position of Vietnam. Yet the prevailing Arab political culture-often adorned with notions such as honor, solidarity, and standing with the “just cause”-reflects a persistent conflation between political values and individual moral values, making…

The U.S.–Israeli war on Iran has reopened the prospect of a new phase of regional instability in the Middle East. Its repercussions are not confined to the direct parties to the conflict; rather, they extend to other arenas intertwined with the region’s broader strategic balances. In this context, Syria emerges as one of the states most sensitive to these developments,…

The hypothetical absence of Iran’s Supreme Leader can be understood as a potentially pivotal moment, though not necessarily as an automatic collapse of the regional balance of power. Since the 1979 revolution, the Iranian political system has not been constructed around a single individual; rather, it rests on a complex institutional–security–ideological architecture in which power is distributed among the religious…

• The escalation between the United States, Iran, and Israel represents a structural shock to the global energy system rather than merely a temporary military crisis.• Energy security has become an integral component of geopolitical deterrence calculations, not solely an economic matter.• The Strait of Hormuz constitutes the most critical chokepoint in the global economy due to the concentration of…

The rise of the new Syrian government under the leadership of Ahmad al-Shar‘ marks a pivotal turning point in the reconfiguration of regional balances-not only within Syria, but also across the Lebanese arena. The organic linkage that once bound Hezbollah to the former Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad constituted one of the central pillars of the party’s regional project.…

The issue of parliamentary elections in Lebanon at the present moment does not appear to be a crisis of the electoral law or a problem related to a special district for expatriates as much as it appears to be a crisis of political timing within a turbulent regional context. The debate surrounding the sixteenth district (related to the election of…

The study analyzes the political order that emerged in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime and argues that the country has not moved toward state consolidation or unified governance. Instead, it has entered a relatively stable strategic equilibrium characterized by fragmentation, overlapping authorities, and sustained external competition. The central claim is that Syria’s current condition is not a…

In an attempt to conceal the state of regional isolation into which Israel has been placed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of a new axis being formed by Israel in coordination and cooperation with India and a number of Arab, African, and Mediterranean countries. He concealed some names while mentioning others such as Greece and Cyprus. It is not…

On 6 February 2026, Syria’s General Authority for Land and Sea Ports issued a decision restricting the entry of foreign (non-Syrian) trucks into Syrian territory, with a limited exception for transit shipments under customs escort to ensure that cargo is not unloaded inside Syria. In practice, the decision institutionalizes the “Back-to-Back” mechanism, which requires incoming trucks to unload their cargo…

During periods of stability, political systems tend to elevate their most visible and charismatic figures. In moments of existential danger, however-when the prospect of a sudden leadership vacuum looms-the criteria of selection may be inverted entirely. Popularity and rhetorical prominence recede in importance, giving way to the imperative of continuity. In such moments, regimes search for a “transitional manager.” It…