Position Estimation

The events of October 7, 2023, and the war that followed reopened the debate over Palestinian political identity, the sources of legitimacy, the actor capable of representing Palestinians, and the most effective instruments for achieving their national rights. The war confronted Palestinian society with two simultaneous experiences: the capacity of armed action to break political stagnation and return the Palestinian…

The displacement scenario remains the most prominent in the calculations of the dominant political current, and it poses the gravest danger to Jordan. Any formula that places broad security or administrative responsibilities on Jordan, while the core instruments of control remain in Israel’s hands, would drain the Kingdom, draw it into daily friction with the Palestinian population, and open the…

Executive Summary Political deadlock and the absence of broad social acceptance pushed the movement toward an alternative path based on armed organisation. Allowing an armed actor to participate in negotiations without requiring it to disarm enabled the movement to accumulate political legitimacy and military power simultaneously. The generation whose political consciousness took shape before 2004 is less vulnerable; the greater…

The 26th Knesset elections, scheduled for 27 October 2026, is taking place at a time unlike any previous election cycle. They are the first general election since 7 October 2023 and the genocidal war on the Gaza Strip, and the spread of the conflict to the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. They also follow the rift caused by the…

The Lebanese file is entering a more complex phase in which neither a political nor a military settlement appears imminent. The process launched with the “Framework Agreement” on June 26 has lost a significant part of its momentum, while U.S. priorities have gradually shifted from seeking a rapid settlement in southern Lebanon toward managing the broader regional escalation, particularly in…

Against the backdrop of changes in European Israeli relations and the escalation of Israeli policies in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip particularly the use of settlement expansion as a means of undermining the two state solution, eliminating the practical possibility of establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and advancing displacement eleven European countries,…

The Yemeni arena is witnessing a highly dangerous military and security transformation, as the Houthis advance along the western coast and take control of sites and areas of strategic importance. Discussion of the city of Mokha, expansion toward Bab al-Mandab, and access to the archipelago, Mayyun Island, and adjacent coastal areas means that current developments go beyond a change in…

While the repercussions of the wars that began on October 7 continue to reshape the calculations of regional powers, the United States has begun shifting from managing confrontation to considering the political order it seeks to build in its aftermath. This transition raises a question that extends beyond the outcomes of the wars themselves: how will Washington leverage those outcomes…

Introduction The Syrian-Israeli meeting held in Amman on August 23, 2026, under Jordanian auspices and with US mediation, brought the prospect of a security agreement between the two sides back to the forefront. The meeting followed Israel’s strike on Abu al-Duhur airbase and came against the backdrop of understandings announced in Paris earlier in the year that had produced neither…

Executive Summary This paper argues that, after 2026, Jordanian foreign policy entered a phase that requires a shift from managing balances to managing Jordan’s own position within the regional conflict system. Over the past decade, Amman succeeded in preserving stability, defending its red lines on Palestine and Jerusalem, and consolidating security and economic partnerships that gave the state a high…