International Policies

Projected Military Scenarios of a War Between the United States and Iran and Their Regional Implications

The war between the United States and Iran represents a qualitative shift in the structure of regional security, marking a transition from indirect deterrence to an open, multi-layered conflict. The conflict has moved beyond a bilateral confrontation to assume the character of a multi-front regional war spanning Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Gulf, and the Red Sea. The behavior of both…

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The Algorithm Is the Weapon

The contemporary geopolitical landscape is undergoing a profound structural transformation driven by the maturation of what is best understood as digitized capitalism. In this emerging paradigm, traditional market dynamics and democratic processes are being replaced by platform-based economies, generating the rapid accumulation of unprecedented wealth and power among a new class of technological elite-Digital Lords. This class now commands vast…

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Brinkmanship: Negotiating Through War and Threat

At first glance, the paradox of the current landscape appears stark. Donald Trump’s rhetoric seems chaotic, erratic, and deeply personalized-closer to impulsiveness than to strategy. Meanwhile, the conduct of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, particularly in expanding theaters of conflict and broadening target ranges, is widely perceived as a form of irrational gambling. Yet this reading is, in all likelihood,…

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The War on Iran: An Analysis of the Logic of Conflict and Potential Scenarios

This assessment proceeds from the premise that the Israeli–U.S. war on Iran has moved beyond the stage of proxy warfare into a phase of gradual attrition, cost escalation, and the reconfiguration of the region’s geopolitical and strategic environment. Drawing on a modified Delphi approach that synthesizes the assessments of a number of experts and researchers, the paper seeks to distill…

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El Fasher Between Escalating Rapid Support and Attempts at International Truce

Since the outbreak of armed clashes in April 2023, Sudan has entered a phase of open conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, a conflict that has gone beyond a dispute between two military commands to reveal a deeper crisis related to the structure of the Sudanese state itself. The confrontation that began in Khartoum quickly spread to…

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The Missing Exit Strategy

It is no longer sufficient to analyze Donald Trump’s speeches in order to construct an analytical framework for understanding the strategic objectives and perceptions of the United States in the current war with Iran. Trump’s rhetoric has clearly become a tool of strategic deception, as demonstrated twice in relation to the strikes on Iran. At the same time, it serves…

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The Pragmatic Infiltration of Left-Ideology States

Many observers of the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel have been questioning the positions of China and Russia-to which one may add the position of Vietnam. Yet the prevailing Arab political culture-often adorned with notions such as honor, solidarity, and standing with the “just cause”-reflects a persistent conflation between political values and individual moral values, making…

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Bangladesh Elections and the Rise of Jamaat-e-Islami: A Shift in Political Equilibria

Elections constitute pivotal moments that not only reflect the will of voters but may also reveal shifts in the internal balance of political power within a state-particularly when their outcomes diverge from patterns that have long defined the political landscape. This is currently evident in Bangladesh following the announcement of parliamentary election results, which showed the Bangladesh Nationalist Party securing…

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The European Perspective on the Future Role of the United States

▪️ The rise of European skepticism regarding the viability of the strategic partnership with Washington and the renewed prominence of the concept of European “strategic autonomy.”▪️ The erosion of trust within NATO as a result of increasing American unilateralism and the reordering of security priorities.▪️ Accumulated trade disputes between the two sides, exacerbated by tariffs and reciprocal threats.▪️ A widening…

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T-DOME: A Multi-Layered Defense System and Israel’s Role in Reshaping Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait

President Lai Ching-te National Day address on October 10, 2025, marked a clear shift in priorities compared to his previous speeches. It reflected a more cautious and pragmatic approach to cross-strait relations, alongside stronger emphasis on domestic national identity, national defense and internal security, and Taiwan’s global standing. This contrasted with the previous year, when his remarks strongly underscored Taiwan’s…

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