Jordan after the Saudi-Israeli normalization

The statements of the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, (to the American Fox News network) a few days ago left no room for doubt or interpretation with regard to the Saudi-American-Israeli negotiations, through which the American administration aims to reach the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations, which is something that is not… It seems easy or very close, but it is not entirely far-fetched, as it is clear that it represents a great interest for the Saudi Crown Prince, the Biden administration, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at this time, which enhances its possibilities, despite the obstacles that still exist.

While Bin Salman was frank in acknowledging the existence of the negotiations and their progress, the King of Jordan, Abdullah II, in his speech at the United Nations, re-emphasized the danger of bypassing the Palestinian issue in any peace or normalization projects in the region, stressing the importance of the two-state solution on the one hand and the taking away of Palestinian rights from On the other hand, and it is an important development in Jordan’s official discourse, as observed by former Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher, it indicates that there is a partial intervention in the approach to rights and confronting the policies of apartheid and labeling the Israeli regime as such, as demanded by a Jordanian, Palestinian, Arab, and even international elite recently, with the manifestations of The complete collapse of any scope for the two-state solution, which the official Jordanian discourse has long adhered to as the only solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and a key to protecting Jordanian national security and securing our strategic interests.

In any case, it is clear that the Jordanian diplomatic efforts are going completely against the wind for the American administrations, and that all attempts to keep the two-state solution as a live option have not succeeded, and that we cannot turn back the clock, since the administration of the former US President, Donald Trump, proposed what It was called the deal of the century, then the regional Abrahamic agreements. There is no room to talk about a two-state solution or the centrality of the Palestinian issue. Even if we examine the statements of the Saudi Crown Prince, he avoided mentioning the term “two-state solution” and simply said, “I want to see a good life for the Palestinians.”

Jordan’s diplomatic speech emphasizing the two-state solution has become outside the US administration’s historical framework

Jordan played a huge and significant role during the past years, and entered into a real political confrontation with the administration of President Donald Trump, especially with the decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem. Jordan did not agree and did not welcome the deal of the century, despite tremendous pressure from Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of the American president at the time. He was traveling and touring the region, linking the Arab countries with Israel, and then he tried to keep the topic of the Palestinian issue central. Jordan pushed towards building a cohesive alliance with regional and Arab parties, particularly coordinating with the Egyptians and Palestinians, and played a major role in the diplomatic conflict with the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, and in building a European position supportive of the survival of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and its financing, and a diplomatic speech that continues to affirm On the two-state solution, and these efforts are noteworthy and appreciated.

Just as a reminder, the administration of President Joe Biden has not proposed any project for a settlement of the conflict, and all it is doing is focusing on “reducing the escalation.” Administration officials do not go beyond talking about the importance of economic normalization and are following the project that was previously proposed by the Trump administration, and no one has returned except the Jordanians and the Palestinians. He proposes the two-state solution!

Jordan must deal with this bitter truth. Its diplomatic discourse, which emphasizes the two-state solution, has become outside the historical framework of the American administration, and of the vast majority of Arab countries. Whether it comes with Biden or Trump, or even Yair Lapid or Netanyahu, the result is unfortunately the same. What then is required after acknowledging these sobering facts?

It is necessary for Jordan to distinguish between its strategic, security and vital interests with Saudi Arabia on the one hand, and the difference between the two countries in viewing many regional issues.

There is an indirect debate in Amman regarding the Jordanian options, after the end of the settlement game (which was clearly indicated in a report issued by the Institute of Politics and Society in Amman, entitled “End-Game Entitlements: The Day After the Failure of the Peace Process” in the middle of last month, August). A trend that sees keeping pace with reality, moving with the regional parties and the American vision, and stopping “fighting” with everyone, and pushing towards a gradual separation from the entitlements of the Palestinian issue. On the other hand, another trend sees that there are no options other than verbally adhering to the two-state solution, not giving up on the Jordanian diplomatic discourse, and leaving The decision is up to the Palestinians, and Jordan should not get involved in any policies that involve the Palestinian issue.

While a third trend believes that what is required, in contrast to the above, is to liberate the Jordanian approach from previous commitments, delve deeper into the Palestinian issue, move from the approach of resolving the conflict to managing it, and attempt to shuffle the cards in the Palestinian arena in a way that pushes the Americans and the international community to rethink the Palestinian issue. And with the regional settlement that bypasses the Palestinians.
The writer of these lines is one of those who call for the third (previous) option, and the inability to separate and separate Jordanian national security, the strategic and vital interests, the Jordanian regional role, and what is happening in the Palestinian scene, for it is an organic-historical-geo-strategic connection. As long as the option of resolving the conflict is over, let us return to managing it, thinking about the options, reviewing the papers, and opening channels with Palestinian players of various political colors, including independents, oppositionists, Islamists, and leftists.

On the other hand, it is necessary for Jordan to distinguish between its strategic, security, and vital interests with Saudi Arabia on the one hand, and the difference between the two countries in their views on many regional files, including those related to the Palestinian issue, of course, and many other files.