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From the Strait of Hormuz Crisis to Resource Integration: The Fourth Gulf War as a Historic Opportunity to Reconfigure Energy and Water Security in the Middle East

• The escalation between the United States, Iran, and Israel represents a structural shock to the global energy system rather than merely a temporary military crisis.• Energy security has become an integral component of geopolitical deterrence calculations, not solely an economic matter.• The Strait of Hormuz constitutes the most critical chokepoint in the global economy due to the concentration of…

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Transformations in Hezbollah’s Position toward the Syrian Government: From Organic Alliance to the Logic of the State

The rise of the new Syrian government under the leadership of Ahmad al-Shar‘ marks a pivotal turning point in the reconfiguration of regional balances-not only within Syria, but also across the Lebanese arena. The organic linkage that once bound Hezbollah to the former Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad constituted one of the central pillars of the party’s regional project.…

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Lebanese Parliamentary Elections Between the Priority of Arms Monopoly and the Reproduction of the Balance of Power

The issue of parliamentary elections in Lebanon at the present moment does not appear to be a crisis of the electoral law or a problem related to a special district for expatriates as much as it appears to be a crisis of political timing within a turbulent regional context. The debate surrounding the sixteenth district (related to the election of…

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“Post-Gaza” Alliance Map

In an attempt to conceal the state of regional isolation into which Israel has been placed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of a new axis being formed by Israel in coordination and cooperation with India and a number of Arab, African, and Mediterranean countries. He concealed some names while mentioning others such as Greece and Cyprus. It is not…

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Larijani: The Man After the Storm – Why Do Regimes Preserve Shadow Figures for the Hour of Peril?

During periods of stability, political systems tend to elevate their most visible and charismatic figures. In moments of existential danger, however-when the prospect of a sudden leadership vacuum looms-the criteria of selection may be inverted entirely. Popularity and rhetorical prominence recede in importance, giving way to the imperative of continuity. In such moments, regimes search for a “transitional manager.” It…

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The Architecture of Turkey’s Domestic Politics: The People’s Alliance, State Mechanisms, and the Question of Political Tenure toward 2028

The appointment of former Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor Akin Gürlek as Minister of Justice carries deep political implications, given his association with sensitive judicial files related to the opposition. The Turkish opposition interpreted the move as a politicization of the judiciary, while international analyses linked it to the redeployment of legal instruments in managing political conflict. The simultaneous change in…

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New Study: “Gulf Investments and Regional Security: Applying RSCT to Saudi Economic Diplomacy in Syria and Jordan”

The study examines how Saudi Arabia employs economic tools as a primary mechanism of political and security influence in the Middle East, focusing on two structurally different cases: post-war Syria and relatively stable but economically dependent Jordan. The research is grounded in the assumption that economic diplomacy has increasingly replaced direct military intervention as the most effective instrument for managing…

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Bangladesh Elections and the Rise of Jamaat-e-Islami: A Shift in Political Equilibria

Elections constitute pivotal moments that not only reflect the will of voters but may also reveal shifts in the internal balance of political power within a state-particularly when their outcomes diverge from patterns that have long defined the political landscape. This is currently evident in Bangladesh following the announcement of parliamentary election results, which showed the Bangladesh Nationalist Party securing…

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Ramadan and Al-Aqsa: Toward a New “Status Quo” Taking Shape Through Gradual Accumulation

Ramadan is approaching amid escalating challenges imposed by the Israeli police inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound. Police and administrative measures are intensifying in ways that are no longer read as temporary security steps, but rather as accumulated tools producing a new status quo. In this context, the slogan “custodianship does not mean sovereignty” is not advanced merely as a legal…

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The European Perspective on the Future Role of the United States

▪️ The rise of European skepticism regarding the viability of the strategic partnership with Washington and the renewed prominence of the concept of European “strategic autonomy.”▪️ The erosion of trust within NATO as a result of increasing American unilateralism and the reordering of security priorities.▪️ Accumulated trade disputes between the two sides, exacerbated by tariffs and reciprocal threats.▪️ A widening…

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