New Study: “Gulf Investments and Regional Security: Applying RSCT to Saudi Economic Diplomacy in Syria and Jordan”

• The study examines how Saudi Arabia employs economic tools as a primary mechanism of political and security influence in the Middle East, focusing on two structurally different cases: post-war Syria and relatively stable but economically dependent Jordan. The research is grounded in the assumption that economic diplomacy has increasingly replaced direct military intervention as the most effective instrument for managing regional influence and shaping political alignments.

• The study draws on a combined theoretical framework that integrates economic diplomacy with Barry Buzan’s Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), which posits that regional security is interdependent and shaped by the structural positions of states within a regional system. Within this framework, Saudi Arabia is conceptualized as a core regional power capable of shaping outcomes through economic leverage; Jordan is viewed as a buffer state whose stability is essential for regional balance; and Syria is described as a penetrated state influenced by multiple external actors. This theoretical lens allows the research to explain why the same economic tools produce different political outcomes across varying security environments.

• Economic diplomacy is defined in the study as the strategic use of financial instruments-including aid, investment, loans, and reconstruction financing-to achieve political and security objectives without relying on military force. These tools generate asymmetric economic relationships that create dependency, enabling the stronger actor to influence the policy behavior and strategic orientation of the weaker state. In this context, financial resources become instruments of power that shape alliances, reinforce regional hierarchies, and manage political alignments.

• In the Syrian case, Saudi Arabia attempts to reassert influence through humanitarian assistance, reconstruction financing, and gradual economic engagement. However, the impact of these efforts remains limited due to the fragmented political environment, institutional weakness, and the deep presence of competing external actors such as Iran, Russia, and Turkey. The multiplicity of patrons and overlapping economic networks dilute Saudi leverage, preventing financial engagement from translating into stable political influence. In such contexts, economic diplomacy functions more as a mechanism of presence and positioning rather than control.

• By contrast, the Jordanian case demonstrates a significantly different outcome. Jordan’s economic dependency, institutional stability, and strategic alignment with Gulf states create conditions in which Saudi financial support can generate tangible political influence. Through budget support, development investments, infrastructure projects, and long-term financial partnerships, Saudi Arabia reinforces Jordan’s stability and strengthens bilateral coordination. In this environment, economic diplomacy operates as a tool of stabilization and alliance maintenance, producing deeper and more durable political alignment.

• The comparative analysis highlights that the effectiveness of economic diplomacy depends less on the scale of financial resources and more on the structural conditions of recipient states. Stability, institutional capacity, and the degree of external competition shape whether financial engagement translates into influence. The study therefore reframes economic statecraft as a central component of regional security governance, demonstrating how financial instruments increasingly define patterns of power and alignment in the Middle East.

• Main conclusion of the study:

Economic diplomacy has become the primary instrument of Saudi influence in the Middle East.

However, its effectiveness depends on: State stability, the level of economic dependency, and the presence of competing external powers

In other words: In stable states, financial engagement produces political influence. In fragmented states, financial engagement creates presence, but not control.

Note: Published articles and papers do not necessarily reflect the views of the Politics and Society Institute.

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