The ongoing escalation on Lebanon is no longer a security event that can be managed through the conventional tools the state has relied on in previous phases. The open confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, occurring alongside the broader war on Iran, not only signals Lebanon’s transition into a more dangerous field phase, but also reveals the country’s entry into a…
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The issue of parliamentary elections in Lebanon at the present moment does not appear to be a crisis of the electoral law or a problem related to a special district for expatriates as much as it appears to be a crisis of political timing within a turbulent regional context. The debate surrounding the sixteenth district (related to the election of…
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The executive order issued by U.S. President Donald Trump[1] designating the Muslim Brotherhood-including its Lebanese branch-as a terrorist organization represents a pivotal moment in Washington’s approach to political Islam in the Middle East. The decision goes beyond immediate security considerations, reflecting a broader shift in the United States’ assessment of the role of Islamist movements in fragile environments, their connections…
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As Lebanon closes out 2025, it has emerged from a state of complete institutional vacuum, yet it has not entered a phase of sustainable stability. The state has formally reoccupied its institutional position, but this position remains constrained by internal and external limitations that render every move susceptible to escalating into a new crisis. What distinguishes the current phase is…
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The assassination of Haitham Ali al-Tabtabaei, one of Hezbollah’s most prominent military commanders, in Beirut’s southern suburb did not occur as an isolated security incident that can be treated as yet another Israeli operation within the ongoing shadow war between the two sides. Rather, the strike-unfolding at a regional moment in which Israeli military signals intersect with heightened political and…
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Lebanon today stands at a pivotal and exceptionally sensitive juncture-one whose implications extend far beyond the southern front and reach into the very core of its position within a rapidly shifting regional equation. All political and field indicators coming from Israel, as well as from concerned Western and Arab capitals, suggest that the likelihood of escalation is now higher than…
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The visit of Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani to Beirut in October 2025 marked a pivotal political moment in the trajectory of relations between the two countries. It was not a conventional diplomatic visit; rather, it represented the first practical test of the evolving relationship between the “new Syria” and Lebanon after two decades of transformation and discontinuity. The visit…
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