Regional Policies

El Fasher Between Escalating Rapid Support and Attempts at International Truce

Since the outbreak of armed clashes in April 2023, Sudan has entered a phase of open conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, a conflict that has gone beyond a dispute between two military commands to reveal a deeper crisis related to the structure of the Sudanese state itself. The confrontation that began in Khartoum quickly spread to…

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Hezbollah and the U.S.-Iran War: The Bets of Lost Time for an Equation in the Process of Collapsing”

“In this article, the assistant researcher at the Institute of Politics and Society, Meera Meshal, discusses the reasons that prompted Hezbollah to engage in the war  in favor of Iran in confronting the United States and Israel. She reviews the hypotheses about this intervention, whether they are internal, related to the relationship with the current Lebanese government, or regional and…

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Syria and the War on Iran: The Dilemma of Hostility and Neutrality

The U.S.–Israeli war on Iran has reopened the prospect of a new phase of regional instability in the Middle East. Its repercussions are not confined to the direct parties to the conflict; rather, they extend to other arenas intertwined with the region’s broader strategic balances. In this context, Syria emerges as one of the states most sensitive to these developments,…

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Beyond the Supreme Leader: Reshaping Iran’s Domestic Order and the Balance of Power in the Middle East

The hypothetical absence of Iran’s Supreme Leader can be understood as a potentially pivotal moment, though not necessarily as an automatic collapse of the regional balance of power. Since the 1979 revolution, the Iranian political system has not been constructed around a single individual; rather, it rests on a complex institutional–security–ideological architecture in which power is distributed among the religious…

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From the Strait of Hormuz Crisis to Resource Integration: The Fourth Gulf War as a Historic Opportunity to Reconfigure Energy and Water Security in the Middle East

• The escalation between the United States, Iran, and Israel represents a structural shock to the global energy system rather than merely a temporary military crisis.• Energy security has become an integral component of geopolitical deterrence calculations, not solely an economic matter.• The Strait of Hormuz constitutes the most critical chokepoint in the global economy due to the concentration of…

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Transformations in Hezbollah’s Position toward the Syrian Government: From Organic Alliance to the Logic of the State

The rise of the new Syrian government under the leadership of Ahmad al-Shar‘ marks a pivotal turning point in the reconfiguration of regional balances-not only within Syria, but also across the Lebanese arena. The organic linkage that once bound Hezbollah to the former Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad constituted one of the central pillars of the party’s regional project.…

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Lebanese Parliamentary Elections Between the Priority of Arms Monopoly and the Reproduction of the Balance of Power

The issue of parliamentary elections in Lebanon at the present moment does not appear to be a crisis of the electoral law or a problem related to a special district for expatriates as much as it appears to be a crisis of political timing within a turbulent regional context. The debate surrounding the sixteenth district (related to the election of…

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New Study: “Rival Strategies, Shared Threat: Israel–Türkiye Competition and Syria’s Future”

The study analyzes the political order that emerged in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime and argues that the country has not moved toward state consolidation or unified governance. Instead, it has entered a relatively stable strategic equilibrium characterized by fragmentation, overlapping authorities, and sustained external competition. The central claim is that Syria’s current condition is not a…

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“Post-Gaza” Alliance Map

In an attempt to conceal the state of regional isolation into which Israel has been placed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of a new axis being formed by Israel in coordination and cooperation with India and a number of Arab, African, and Mediterranean countries. He concealed some names while mentioning others such as Greece and Cyprus. It is not…

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The Jordanian Truck Crisis: Why Do Amman and Damascus Need Operational Governance?

On 6 February 2026, Syria’s General Authority for Land and Sea Ports issued a decision restricting the entry of foreign (non-Syrian) trucks into Syrian territory, with a limited exception for transit shipments under customs escort to ensure that cargo is not unloaded inside Syria. In practice, the decision institutionalizes the “Back-to-Back” mechanism, which requires incoming trucks to unload their cargo…

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