Position Estimation

The ongoing escalation on Lebanon is no longer a security event that can be managed through the conventional tools the state has relied on in previous phases. The open confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, occurring alongside the broader war on Iran, not only signals Lebanon’s transition into a more dangerous field phase, but also reveals the country’s entry into a…

The politics and society institute held a closed discussion session via Zoom on February 25, 2026, titled “The West Bank in the Context of Structural Transformation: Security, Political Legitimacy, and the Jordanian Strategic Environment.” The session addressed the ongoing transformations in the West Bank and their regional implications, in light of the rapid political and security developments in the region.…

Since the outbreak of armed clashes in April 2023, Sudan has entered a phase of open conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, a conflict that has gone beyond a dispute between two military commands to reveal a deeper crisis related to the structure of the Sudanese state itself. The confrontation that began in Khartoum quickly spread to…

The rise of the new Syrian government under the leadership of Ahmad al-Shar‘ marks a pivotal turning point in the reconfiguration of regional balances-not only within Syria, but also across the Lebanese arena. The organic linkage that once bound Hezbollah to the former Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad constituted one of the central pillars of the party’s regional project.…

The issue of parliamentary elections in Lebanon at the present moment does not appear to be a crisis of the electoral law or a problem related to a special district for expatriates as much as it appears to be a crisis of political timing within a turbulent regional context. The debate surrounding the sixteenth district (related to the election of…

Masoud Pezeshkian’s experience embodies a living manifestation of the reformist’s predicament when he is summoned after the moment has passed—not as a project of structural transformation, but as an instrument for managing deadlock and reducing the costs of systemic collapse. The legacy of Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri represents a latent horizon of internal transition, one that may still allow for…

In recent months, debate inside Israel has intensified over the future of exemptions granted to the Haredi community, amid demographic and sociological transformations that render the old arrangement increasingly untenable. This debate is not confined to the question of conscription or the distribution of economic burdens; rather, it reflects a deeper crisis in the structure of Israel’s social contract, which…

Southern Yemen occupies a position of considerable geopolitical significance, derived not only from its proximity to major international maritime routes, but also from its role as a strategic node for controlling ports and sea lanes linked to global energy trade. This geographic dimension has turned the South into an arena of direct regional competition, where the interests of multiple powers…

The article examines the protests in Iran as a pivotal moment that differs from previous waves, as they coincide with a rapid transformation in the regional environment surrounding Iran. It starts from the premise that developments inside Iran are no longer a purely domestic matter, but a regional variable capable of reshaping security balances in the Levant, particularly in arenas…

The executive order issued by U.S. President Donald Trump[1] designating the Muslim Brotherhood-including its Lebanese branch-as a terrorist organization represents a pivotal moment in Washington’s approach to political Islam in the Middle East. The decision goes beyond immediate security considerations, reflecting a broader shift in the United States’ assessment of the role of Islamist movements in fragile environments, their connections…