PSI Presents a Jordanian Reading of a Turkish Report on the War’s Repercussions and Regional Transformations
- Report: Türkiye does not want Iran to collapse or Israel to become a dominant regional power, as both scenarios threaten its security and strategic interests.
- Report: Israeli expansion in Syria and Lebanon could become a direct strategic challenge to Türkiye after the war.
- Report: Ankara seeks to consolidate its role as a balancing power and regional mediator while keeping communication channels open with various parties.
- Report: Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz increases the strategic importance of the Development Road and the Middle Corridor as alternatives to vulnerable maritime routes.
- Report: Key military lessons include the limitations of air defence systems against saturation attacks, as well as the importance of decentralisation, artificial intelligence, and expanded defence production.
- Report: The Turkish document largely excludes Jordan from regional security and connectivity arrangements, despite its direct exposure to developments in Iraq, southern Syria, the Gulf, and the West Bank.
- Report: Jordan needs an independent national vision for regional security, trade corridors, southern Syria, and the West Bank, alongside balanced coordination with Riyadh, Ankara, and Washington without becoming dependent on any single axis.
The Politics and Society Institute (PSI) has published a Jordanian analytical reading of the report titled “The U.S./Israeli–Iranian War and Türkiye: A Military and Geopolitical Perspective,” issued by Türkiye’s National Intelligence Academy in May 2026.
The Turkish report examines the war’s military and technological lessons, Iran’s future, the growing Turkish–Israeli rivalry, and shifts in regional security. It also addresses energy security, the Strait of Hormuz, and the strategic importance of the Development Road and the Middle Corridor to Türkiye.
PSI’s analysis explains that the report reflects a Turkish perspective aimed at preventing Iran’s collapse while limiting Israel’s emergence as an unchecked regional power, particularly in Syria and Lebanon. It also portrays Türkiye as a balancing power and regional mediator capable of maintaining communication with various regional and international actors.
From a Jordanian perspective, the analysis highlights Jordan’s limited presence in the Turkish report despite the Kingdom’s direct exposure to developments in Iraq, southern Syria, the Gulf, the West Bank, and regional trade and energy routes.
The analysis concludes that Jordan needs to develop an independent national vision for regional security, trade corridors, southern Syria, and the West Bank. It also calls for balanced coordination with regional and international powers to safeguard Jordan’s national interests and mitigate the impact of regional transformations on its security and economy.