Regional Policies

Iran’s Third Republic in the Making

In recent weeks, a series of brief remarks by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have conveyed important signals about the nature of the unspoken disagreements within the structure of the Iranian political system. During a limited meeting with a group of intellectuals and elites, the president stressed the importance of preventing any single institution from monopolizing decision-making during this sensitive period.…

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Will Hamas Elections Pull the Movement Out of Its Crisis?

Hamas’s current elections are not merely a process of leadership replacement; they constitute a test of the movement’s ability to survive and reconstruct itself in the aftermath of the losses incurred since October 7. The internal competition within Hamas revolves around two principal approaches: one centered on resistance, alignment with Iran, and close ties to the military wing; and another…

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The Assassination of al-Minoki: Where Does the Policy of Decapitation Lead?

Do organizations end with the assassination of their leaders? This question was raised by the world after the killings of Osama bin Laden and al-Baghdadi, and it resurfaces today with Trump’s announcement of eliminating the second-in-command of ISIS at the heart of Africa[1] in the Lake Chad region. But before analyzing the event as a victory or a failure, the…

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Jordan Repositions Itself in a Transforming Middle East Amid Competition Over Trade and Energy Corridors

As geopolitical and economic transformations accelerate across the Middle East, a new policy paper titled “Jordan and the Middle East: A Forward-Looking Strategic Vision” by senior researcher Ali Hijazi highlights the profound shifts reshaping the regional order through logistics corridors, energy networks, and cross-border supply chains. The paper argues that regional competition is no longer limited to traditional political influence.…

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Lebanon After the Third Round of Negotiations: A Declaration of Intentions and Contradictory Paths

The Lebanese-Israeli negotiations have entered, after the third round, an entirely different phase from anything Lebanon has experienced since the April 1996 Understanding and the arrangements that followed the July 2006 war. The issue is no longer confined to localized security arrangements or the management of limited confrontations along the southern border. Instead, it has become part of a broader…

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Reading into the Social Meaning of Jordan’s Strikes on Southern Syria

Military strikes are designed to achieve specific security objectives, but they also generate profound social meanings. The insights captured in the Politics and Society Institute’s report on Syrian digital discourse following the May 2026 Jordanian strikes on southern Syria reveal that the meaning constructed by the Syrian public extended far beyond Amman’s declared objectives. Syrians did not focus on drug…

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Jordan’s Deterrence Operations: An Analysis of Syrian Digital Discourse on the Airstrikes Against the South May 2026

The report tracked 18,000 interactions between May 2 and 10, 2026. 46.2% of the discourse was classified as neutral, compared to 30.9% supportive of the strikes and 22.9% opposed. The “neutral” segment was not fully neutral; Syrian accounts repeatedly reshared narratives linking the strikes to smuggling networks and al-Hajari’s militias without visible pushback — which the report reads as implicit…

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Israel’s New Dilemma

Despite Benjamin Netanyahu’s rhetoric about pressing ahead with a project of Israeli regional dominance, alongside political discourse centered on reshaping the Middle East and transforming Israel’s security doctrine from defense to regional influence, it is becoming increasingly clear that important reassessments are now taking place within Israel regarding the lessons drawn from the wars it has fought since October 7,…

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Intelligence and the Construction of Influence in the Middle East: The Turkish Experience

Introduction: Why Has Intelligence Become an Instrument of Regional Power? The Middle East is no longer governed, as it was during the twentieth century, solely through the balance of conventional armies, the size of military arsenals, or formal diplomatic alliances. The deeper transformation witnessed across the region over the past two decades lies in the shift of the center of…

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Nawaf Salam’s Visit to Damascus: Testing a New Relationship

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s visit to Syria comes at a complex transitional moment in the region, not only because it represents the first visit of this level since the major transformations Syria has undergone, but also because it reflects the fact that Lebanese-Syrian relations are no longer merely in a formative phase. Rather, they have already entered a stage…

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