Jordan in the Post-War Middle East: National Security Begins in the West Bank and JerusalemA Strategic Analysis by the Politics and Society Institute

The Politics and Society Institute has released a new policy paper entitled “Jordan and the Day After the War: A Strategic Assessment of Regional Transformations and the Requirements of National Security.” The paper examines Jordan’s strategic position in the aftermath of the Israeli–U.S. war against Iran and analyzes the complex regional transformations it has generated, arguing that these developments require a reassessment of Jordan’s national interests and the policy tools needed to navigate the “day after” phase.

The paper argues that the war did not produce a decisive military or political outcome in the conventional sense. Instead, it redistributed threats and strategic challenges across multiple fronts, leaving Jordan to operate in an increasingly fluid regional environment shaped by developments involving Iran, the West Bank, Jerusalem, southern Syria, emerging regional alignments, and mounting domestic economic pressures.

According to the paper, the primary threat to Jordan’s national security does not stem solely from the consequences of the war with Iran, but rather from Israel’s accelerating policies in the West Bank and Jerusalem. In particular, it highlights the expansion of Israeli settlements and legislative initiatives aimed at extending Israeli sovereignty, warning that these developments carry direct implications for the Hashemite Custodianship, Jordan’s demographic stability, and the growing risk of displacement, all of which have immediate consequences for the Kingdom’s internal security.

The paper further argues that the growing tensions between Washington and Tel Aviv create a limited yet important diplomatic opportunity for Jordan. It contends, however, that Jordanian engagement should not remain confined to traditional channels within the U.S. Congress but should instead expand to the principal centers of decision-making within the U.S. administration, emphasizing that Israeli policies in the West Bank and Jerusalem constitute the principal drivers of renewed regional instability.

Regarding Iran, the paper recommends pursuing a carefully calibrated political and security dialogue with Tehran—not as a strategic alignment or alliance, but as a pragmatic channel for managing the influence of Iranian-backed armed groups operating in Iraq and Syria. It stresses that such engagement should remain firmly conditioned by Jordan’s national security priorities and guided by realistic expectations.

On southern Syria, the paper argues that Jordan has effectively moved beyond a posture of observation toward one of proactive deterrence through direct action against cross-border smuggling networks and transnational security threats. It recommends institutionalizing this approach by transforming it from an operational practice into a clearly articulated security doctrine embedded within a broader national security strategy.

The paper also emphasizes that Jordan’s domestic front is no longer merely a symbolic line of defense but has become a central pillar of the country’s national security architecture. Rising public debt, fiscal deficits, unemployment, and mounting pressures on critical sectors such as water security all represent strategic challenges. It argues that economic and social security are no less important than external threats and that Jordan’s ability to maneuver effectively in a volatile regional environment ultimately depends on strengthening domestic resilience.

The paper concludes that Jordan’s most effective course of action lies in adopting a proactive, multi-track engagement strategy supported by a comprehensive written national security framework. Such an approach would transform “strategic hedging” from a broad conceptual principle into an institutionalized policy that is measurable, accountable, and capable of balancing flexibility in foreign relations with disciplined management of domestic priorities.

Among its principal recommendations, the paper calls for the development of a comprehensive written Jordanian National Security Strategy; the practical deepening of Jordanian-Saudi cooperation; intensified engagement with key decision-making centers in the United States; the establishment of a carefully calibrated dialogue with Iran; the institutionalization of proactive deterrence in addressing cross-border threats; and the integration of economic, social, and human security into Jordan’s broader national security framework.

The Politics and Society Institute is an independent Jordanian think tank dedicated to producing research, policy papers, and strategic analyses on political, social, and regional transformations affecting Jordan and the Middle East. Through evidence-based research and in-depth policy analysis, the Institute seeks to enrich public debate and support decision-makers on issues related to reform, national security, and public policy.

To download the full paper, click here.