Politics and Society Institute Publishes Strategic Study on Transformations in the International Order and the Future of Security in the Middle East
The Politics and Society Institute (PSI) has published a new strategic study titled “Transformations in the International Order and the Reshaping of Security in the Middle East,” prepared and analysed by Ali Hijazi. Drawing on a qualitative survey of nine experts and researchers specialising in international and regional affairs, the study provides an analytical assessment of ongoing shifts in the global balance of power and their implications for the future of Arab security.
The study addresses three central questions: whether the Russia–Europe confrontation reflects a structural transformation in the international order; the future of interconnected conflicts in Palestine, Iran, and Yemen and their implications for regional power dynamics; and the position of Arab states and the strategic options available to them amid growing security and economic threats.
The study concludes that the region is entering a phase characterised by a widening gap between the capacity to deploy military force and the ability to translate its outcomes into stable political and security arrangements. It highlights that transformations in the international order extend beyond the Russia–Europe confrontation to include the United States’ redefinition of its security commitments, intensifying US–China competition, and the growing importance of energy, technology, and trade corridors in shaping international influence.
At the regional level, the study examines the repercussions of the confrontation with Iran, developments in the war in Yemen, security in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, and political and military developments in Palestine and Lebanon. It emphasises that the interconnectedness of these crises does not necessarily mean that they follow a single trajectory. Each conflict arena retains its own local drivers and the distinct calculations of its actors, even as it remains influenced by broader regional and international power dynamics.
The study introduces an analytical framework titled “The Three Thresholds of Regional Security,” distinguishing between the military capacity to deter and inflict damage; the operational capacity to safeguard economic activity, critical infrastructure, and essential services during crises; and the political capacity to translate the outcomes of confrontations into sustainable security arrangements and rules. This framework helps explain why instability persists despite shifts in the balance of power and the proliferation of military and diplomatic initiatives.
Looking ahead, the study anticipates continued regional competition and limited escalation alongside efforts to reach partial agreements and understandings. It warns of the risks posed by the transmission of shocks across maritime corridors, energy markets, and Arab economies, particularly when crises occur simultaneously in multiple conflict arenas.
The study underscores the importance of moving beyond individual responses to security threats towards developing more coordinated Arab capabilities. These include protecting critical infrastructure, strengthening early-warning systems, securing maritime and trade routes, diversifying economic and security partnerships, and supporting national institutions in conflict-affected states. It also emphasises the centrality of the Palestinian question to any future vision of regional stability and the need to strengthen Arab participation in shaping the political and security arrangements affecting the region’s interests.
The expert survey brought together Ibrahim Freihat, Ahmad Jamil Azem, Suhaib Jawhar, Essam Mohammed, Imad Rawashdeh, Amr Hamzawy, Mahjoub Zuweiri, Mohammad Abu Rumman, and Mohammad Sari Al-Zoubi. The study draws on a comparative analysis of their contributions while presenting independent analytical findings aimed at interpreting current transformations and anticipating their possible trajectories.
This publication forms part of the Politics and Society Institute’s ongoing efforts to produce research and strategic assessments that deepen understanding of international and regional transformations and contribute to policy debates on the future of security and stability in the Middle East.