What Netanyahu wants?
Many analysts from both Arab and Western perspectives have exaggerated the connection between Israel’s aggressive actions in Gaza in the past year, since the Al-Aqsa flood on October 7, 2023, and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s attempts to evade corruption charges in the Israeli judiciary. Even if this explanation holds some truth, it overlooks a more critical question: the political agenda of Netanyahu and the mainstream in Israeli society, and the magnitude of the changes that have occurred in the political atmosphere there over the past two decades, along with the fundamental shifts in the concept of “Israeli security.”
Over the past decade, Israeli leaders have been developing new theories about the sources of threats and Israel’s changing priorities, both internally and externally. Internally, there has been a growing focus on the “Jewish state identity” and the demographic question, with some advocating for the elimination of the Palestinian population, which become a dominant stream in Israeli’s strategic thinking. This shift has led to significant expansion of settlements, the promotion of Jewish identity in Jerusalem, and a collapse of the Palestinian state project. Even the Palestinian Authority, at its weakest, is no longer acceptable to the prevailing political trend in Israel. As a result, there is a growing shift in thinking towards various other scenarios, including efforts to eliminate Palestinians from both the territories occupied in 1948 and 1967.
The landscape of threats to Israeli security has undergone significant changes in recent years. With the decrease in traditional challenges posed by Arab states and revolutionary regimes following the Arab Spring in 2011, Israeli security experts have shifted their focus to potential threats from Iranian influence, sub-state organizations near Israel, and various aspects of political Islam. The primary concern now is to ensure Israel’s security in this evolving regional environment.
Thus, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized the importance of the technology sector, particularly military and espionage technology, for Israel’s future. This strategy is designed to uphold Israel’s technological superiority, strengthen its capability to address potential threats, and preemptively neutralize them. While attention has increasingly turned to Iran’s nuclear program, it has emerged as a main threat to Netanyahu’s security doctrine and Israel’s military and security establishment.
Trump’s era (which began after Obama’s administration which conducted an agreement with Iran) provided Prime Minister Netanyahu with an opportunity to advance Israel’s integration into the region. This was pursued through the “regional peace” project and the formation of an Arab-Israeli defense alliance to address perceived “new threats”. Additionally, there was a renewed focus on ending the Palestinian state project and gaining control of Jerusalem. Efforts were made to eliminate the remaining elements of the Palestinian state, which progressed until the incident of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. This incident posed a shock for Israel and its security and military project and prompted Netanyahu to develop a new vision titled “changing the face of the Middle East,” aiming to thwart rising powers, assert Israeli dominance in the region, and restore Israeli deterrence doctrine, not only in terms of domestic Israeli politics but also regionally, where Netanyahu and some of his ministers openly presented new maps of Israel and the region based on the principle of Israeli superiority.
The most unusual proposal from Netanyahu is his arrogant theory of seeking surrender from the countries in the region, drawing parallels to the post-World War II surrender of Germany and Japan, the transformation of the educational curricula in Germany and Japan by allies, and the establishment of a new international system. He proudly mentioned this at the United Nations General Assembly’s session, disregarding the vast historical, political, and civilizational differences between the two cases. Despite severe blows, displacement, destruction (exceeding the size of the two American nuclear bombs that were utilized in World War II), and ongoing confrontations for a year, the resistance has not ceased. Even if Israel achieves strategic security breakthroughs by eliminating the leadership of Hezbollah, this will only address a limited part of the conflict. There is widespread popular resistance, and the notion of reaching a regional system in this manner is far from reality after a year of October 7th!
Netanyahu has expressed his wishes for Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, as he sees the potential for having a right-wing American ally to advance his objectives. However, the region is complex, with religious and symbolic dimensions and ongoing conflicts, making it unlikely for the people in the region to accept or yield to the Israeli project. Despite enduring tragedies and catastrophes inflicted by their political regimes and enemies, this situation could lead to the rise of more radical forces and ongoing instability.
Is there another alternative in Israeli society?! Can anyone argue that this security doctrine cannot be achieved, and therefore it is necessary to return to a peace project based on recognizing the rights of the Palestinians and the establishment of a Palestinian state? At present, this scenario is not being seriously considered within the Israeli public sphere, leaving the options of peace and war dependent on fragile assumptions. It is cautioned that the region is not currently moving toward a major regional agreement that guarantees stability. Instead, it seems to be a choice between a balance of power and ongoing conflict, or a state of constant chaos, in which the Israeli project and the Palestinian question are pivotal. The collapse of Arab national political state projects is a complex issue and is considered a dynamic of regional and internal conflicts.