Operation “Deterrence of Aggression”: Timing and Implications

Aleppo governorate has witnessed rapid military developments over the past three days following the announcement of Operation “Deterrence of Aggression” by Syrian opposition forces. This operation has resulted in the capture of significant areas in Aleppo’s western countryside and parts of its surrounding areas, alongside a swift retreat by Syrian regime forces. These developments mark a potentially pivotal moment in the Syrian conflict, given the scale and intensity of the military actions—the largest in northern Syria since March 2020. The potential impact of this operation on the Syrian conflict is significant, as it could shift the balance of power and influence in the region. However, these events raise more questions than they answer, especially considering the complex interaction of local actors with divergent interests and objectives. The article below explores the key dimensions shaping the current escalation in northern Syria.

The Military Operation: Context and Background

The “Deterrence of Aggression” operation has emerged amidst a regionally fragmented context. On the one hand, Lebanon’s ceasefire arrangement, with its stringent terms on Hezbollah, reflects a broader decline in Iran’s influence, alongside that of Hezbollah, within Syria. On the other hand, the prolonged stalemate in Turkish-Syrian regime negotiations—highlighted by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s comments on what may be considered Iran’s role in obstructing talks—adds another factor to the timing of this operation.

Additionally, the operation capitalised on a set of regional dynamics. These include the preoccupation of the Syrian regime’s allies with their own challenges, such as Russia’s engagement in Ukraine and the current escalation; for the first time since February 2022, long-range missiles have been utilised recently. This period has also seen a notable decline in Iran’s influence in Syria and broader regional adjustments in anticipation of Donald Trump’s potential return to the U.S. presidency in January next year.

Despite significant political and military differences among opposition groups in northwest Syria, the announcement of a unified military command under the “Al-Fateh al-Mubin” operations room, a key player in the operation, signals several noteworthy dynamics:

A Turkish Political Cover for the Operation? The possibility of a new Turkish-Russian understanding following the recent Astana conference (round 22) in mid-November may explain the absence of customary Russian air cover during this operation. Such an understanding could significantly alter the geopolitical dynamics in the region, potentially leading to a reconfiguration of alliances and power structures. The Astana platform remains the primary venue for direct negotiations between Russia, Iran, and Turkey. With Russia and Turkey aware of Iran’s declining role in the region, it is plausible that the two parties reached an understanding whose details may emerge in due course.

The Unification of Opposition Factions: The operation signifies a strategic redirection of opposition forces against the Syrian regime and its allies, particularly after months of infighting among opposition groups. Tactical victories in this operation could restore cohesion among opposition factions.

Operational Readiness: The operation is a testament to the opposition forces’ combat preparedness and strategic planning. Their control over most of Aleppo’s western countryside, encirclement of Aleppo city, and severing of the M5 highway—the crucial logistical link between Damascus and Aleppo—underscore their high level of coordination and organisational capacity, leaving a lasting impression on their capabilities.

Thus, Initial data from the “Al-Fateh al-Mubin” operations room indicates that the opposition had secured control over (Until the evening of Friday, November 29, 2024, when the Arabic version of this article was published) 625.8 km² of Aleppo’s western countryside, 206.5 km² of Idlib’s eastern countryside, and 18 km² of Aleppo’s western neighbourhoods. These gains, achieved within 72 hours, highlight the scale and efficiency of the operation.

A Limited Battle or an Open War?

The central question remains: Will this operation remain localised to Aleppo and its surroundings, or could it escalate into broader confrontations across Syria? The potential for a wider escalation underscores the gravity of the situation, making it a matter of utmost concern. While it is too early to determine the operation’s ultimate trajectory, several variables will shape its outcome:

Russia’s Position: Russia has maintained the dominant role in Syria since it intervened in 2015. However, during this operation, its involvement has been limited to airstrikes in Idlib’s western countryside, without the extensive air cover typically seen in previous campaigns. Bashar al-Assad’s recent visit to Moscow could clarify Russia’s stance and potentially validate assumptions of Russian-Turkish understanding in northwestern Syria.

Iran’s Reaction: Iran’s military footprint in Syria remains extensive, with established supply routes (the Iranian safe corridor) linking the two countries. While Iranian officials have voiced support for the Syrian regime, the extent of Iran’s on-ground response to the operation remains unclear. Any substantive Iranian countermeasures could significantly influence the operation’s progression.

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Strongholds east Euphrates with positioning in the west, the SDF maintains direct borders with opposition and regime forces north of Aleppo. Given the close relationship between the SDF and Washington, the SDF’s decision to remain neutral or align with one side could signal U.S. intentions toward the operation.

Southern Syria’s Dynamics: The province of As Suwayda has seen sustained protests over the past 18 months, with calls for the regime’s ouster growing louder. If Suwayda’s armed and influential Druze social forces declare their stand with the Aleppo operation, this could escalate tensions further. Southern Syria’s already fragile security environment, characterised by Iran-backed factions and rampant drug illicit networks, adds more complexity to the broader ongoing conflict.

Conclusion

The scenarios and assumptions outlined above remain speculative until the unfolding events in Aleppo reveal their implications. The evolving military dynamics will hinge on the responses of critical actors within Syria on this operation. Given the fluidity of the Syrian conflict over the past decade and a half, all outcomes remain plausible. The ongoing arrangements in the region, particularly concerning Iran’s role in the Middle East, will probably serve as a defining factor in shaping Syria’s future.