Policy Paper: Jordan and the Gradual Annexation of the West Bank: Threat Assessment and Policy Options Rana

The Politics and Society Institute has published a new policy paper entitled “Jordan and the Gradual Annexation of the West Bank: Threat Assessment and Policy Options” The paper draws on the findings of a specialized roundtable organized by the Institute, which examined the trajectory of the gradual annexation of the West Bank and its potential implications for Jordan, Palestine, and the wider region. The discussion brought together a number of experts and researchers specializing in Palestinian and Israeli affairs, as well as regional security issues. The paper also builds on a broader analytical assessment of the current political and security environment, moving beyond a description of ongoing developments to evaluate their implications for Jordan’s national interests and to propose policy options for consideration by decision-makers.

According to the paper, the most pressing threat facing Jordan lies in the consolidation of a process of de facto gradual annexation, which is reshaping the political, security, and demographic landscape west of the Jordan River. This process is manifested through the expansion of Israeli settlements, the strengthening of security control, restrictions on movement, the confiscation of land and resources, and increasing financial and economic pressure on the Palestinian Authority. Together, these measures transform annexation from a formally declared legal act into an accumulating reality on the ground.

The paper argues that the danger of this trajectory lies in the convergence of multiple interconnected risks that directly affect Jordan’s national interests. These include the possible exhaustion or collapse of the Palestinian Authority, increased security pressure along Jordan’s borders, a growing likelihood of forced displacement or population movements, heightened domestic polarization, and the gradual erosion of the political framework that has governed Jordanian-Israeli relations since the signing of the peace treaty.

At the same time, developments within Israel point to a gradual shift from managing the conflict toward resolving it unilaterally on the ground. This strategy is reflected in intensified settlement expansion, the growing influence of the settler movement, the systematic weakening of the Palestinian Authority’s institutional and economic capacity, and the creation of geographic and security realities that make any future political settlement increasingly difficult. These trends coincide with the rise of right-wing and religious political discourse in Israel, as well as a U.S. political environment that is supportive of—or at least tolerant toward—Israeli policies, thereby limiting the prospects for effective international pressure in the near term.

The paper concludes that Jordan’s response to gradual annexation must move beyond a reactive approach toward a strategy of anticipation and preparedness. It calls for a multi-level framework that combines political and legal deterrence, domestic resilience, regional and international coordination, security and humanitarian preparedness, and sustained support for the resilience of Palestinians in the West Bank. It recommends the adoption of a phased Jordanian strategy that treats de facto annexation as an ongoing threat requiring continuous monitoring, assessment, and policy action.

To read the full policy paper, click here.