A new issue of the Jordanian Politics and Society Journal (JPS) discusses the war against Iran and the reshaping of Middle Eastern power balances

The Politics and Society Institute (PSI) has published the fifth issue of its semi-annual Jordanian Politics and Society Journal (JPS), focusing on the political, security, economic, and strategic repercussions of the U.S.–Israeli war against Iran and its profound implications for the balance of power in the Middle East, the future of the regional order, and the position of Arab states at a time marked by declining confidence in traditional alliances and the growing prominence of geopolitical and geoeconomic competition.

This issue provides a comprehensive analysis in which the conflict extends far beyond a military confrontation between specific actors. Instead, it represents a broader test of the resilience of the regional order, the credibility of deterrence, the meaning of sovereignty, and the limits of reliance on external security guarantees. It also provides an in-depth discussion of the evolving strategic positions of Jordan, Iraq, Syria, the Gulf states, Lebanon, Egypt, and Palestine amid transformations that have reshaped regional power dynamics and redefined security priorities across the Middle East.

In the opening editorial, former Jordanian Prime Minister and Chairman of the Journal’s Advisory Board, Abdul Karim Kabariti, presents a strategic and political assessment of the current regional landscape. He argues that the U.S.–Israeli war against Iran represents a critical turning point that could fundamentally reshape the balance of power in the Middle East, compelling Arab states to reassess their strategic priorities, regional partnerships, and place within the emerging regional order. Kabariti frames his analysis around a central question: What direction will the region take in the aftermath of the war, amid expanding Israeli ambitions, the persistence of Iranian influence, the evolving nature of U.S. commitments, and the accelerating transformations of the international system?

Kabariti calls for a more independent and pragmatic Arab vision, one that redefines relations with Iran through the lens of national interests and regional security rather than ideological or sectarian polarization. He also advocates diversifying strategic partnerships with both international and regional powers, arguing that Arab interests should not be tied to a single geopolitical axis. A significant part of his analysis is devoted to Jordan, where he stresses that the country’s national interest lies in preserving its balanced foreign policy and avoiding entanglement in regional conflicts, while recognizing that the most pressing strategic challenge remains Israel’s policies toward Jordan and the Palestinian issue.

The issue opens its featured interviews with an extensive conversation with former Jordanian Prime Minister Omar Razzaz on the transformation of the global order and the Middle East in the age of geoeconomics. Razzaz offers a thought-provoking analysis of the structural changes reshaping the international system, linking contemporary wars and crises to broader shifts in the global political and economic order. The discussion examines the crisis of the Western liberal model, the retreat of globalization in its conventional form, and the rise of geoeconomics as the defining framework of great-power competition, in which technology, energy, semiconductors, critical minerals, supply chains, and maritime corridors have become the principal instruments of power and influence.

The interview also devotes considerable attention to Jordan. Razzaz argues that stability is no longer merely a defensive asset but a form of strategic capital that should be transformed into productive and institutional strength through economic investment, capacity building, leveraging Jordan’s geographic location, and advancing the country’s transition from a transit state into a regional hub for production and logistical connectivity. In this sense, the interview offers far more than commentary on an ongoing conflict; it provides a strategic and intellectual framework for understanding the world emerging in its aftermath.

In his article, “ Iran and the Accumulation of Losses: The Islamic Republic on the Day After the War,” Professor of Contemporary Middle Eastern History Mahjoob Zweiri examines Iran’s post-war trajectory by tracing the gradual erosion of Tehran’s regional influence. He argues that the war accelerated Iran’s transition from a model of relatively low-cost regional influence to one characterized by mounting political, security, and economic costs. The article further explores the consequences of Syria’s loss as a strategic ally, the weakening of Iran’s regional partners, and the broader implications for the future of Iranian strategy in the Middle East.

From the perspective of political economy, Ibrahim Saif examines the economic consequences of the U.S.–Israeli war against Iran in his article, “ The Economic Consequences of the U.S.-Israeli War on Iran: The Open-Ended Calculation and Its Aftermath.” He analyzes the conflict’s impact on energy markets, global supply chains, international trade, and inflation, as well as its implications for both oil-producing and non-oil Arab economies. The article demonstrates how economic instruments have become an integral component of modern conflict, with energy resources, maritime corridors, and supply chains emerging as geoeconomic tools of leverage that rival military capabilities in strategic significance.

The Jordan section features an article by Ali Hijazi, the senior researcher at the Politics and Society Institute (PSI), entitled “Jordan as a Resilience State: Engineering Stability and the Limits of Adaptation in a Turbulent Regional Environment.” The article examines Jordan’s experience in managing successive regional crises through the concept of the “Resilient State” as an analytical framework for understanding the country’s ability to preserve political, security, and institutional cohesion amid profound regional instability. It further asks whether resilience can remain a sustainable long-term strategy or whether it may gradually evolve into a condition of strategic fatigue, necessitating a shift from crisis management toward deeper structural transformation.

Iraq is examined through two complementary contributions. In “ Critical Balance: Iraq Under the Pressure of the American-Israeli War on Iran,” Abdullah Mohammed Al-Taie, a Non-Resident Researcher at the Politics and Society Institute, analyzes Iraq’s position at the center of the regional confrontation, highlighting the fragmentation of political and security decision-making, the enduring influence of armed factions, and the intersection of regional and international interests. The article focuses on the crisis of Iraqi sovereignty and the capacity of state institutions to shield the country from the broader conflict. Complementing this analysis, Professor of Political Science Firas Ilyas argues in “ Iraq and the War on Iran: Transformations of the State and the Regional Sphere” that Iraq’s role has evolved beyond being merely an arena of competition between the United States and Iran. Instead, he contends that Iraq has become a pivotal geopolitical node in the ongoing reconfiguration of the regional order.

On Syria, Hassan Jaber, a Non-Resident Researcher at the Politics and Society Institute, explores the country’s evolving strategic environment in his article, “Syria between Geopolitical Constraint and Regional Repositioning.” He examines how the collapse of the Assad regime and the resulting domestic and regional transformations have redefined Syria’s geopolitical position and strategic function. The article also analyzes the geopolitical constraints shaping Damascus’s policy options, the competition among regional and international actors to redefine Syria’s future role, and the limitations facing the new government as it seeks to pursue an independent foreign policy amid an increasingly complex strategic landscape.

The Gulf file includes an article by Mohammed Sari Al-Zoubi, Senior Researcher at the Gulf Studies Center, entitled “ The Gulf States and the Redefinition of Security and Sovereignty.” The article introduces the concept of “Responsible Interdependent Sovereignty” as a theoretical framework for understanding the relationship between dependence on external security partners and the strategic vulnerabilities such dependence may generate. It argues that the war has prompted Gulf states to reassess the assumptions underpinning traditional security arrangements and to reconsider their long-term strategic priorities. Complementing this analysis, Rand Azem, Assistant Researcher at the Politics and Society Institute, presents a digital listening study examining the impact of the U.S.–Israeli–Iranian war on Gulf online discourse regarding relations with the United States. The study reveals growing public skepticism toward the effectiveness of the traditional security umbrella and highlights significant shifts in Gulf public perceptions of regional security dynamics.

The Lebanon section features an article by Lebanese affairs researcher Suhaib Jawhar, entitled “ Lebanon and Hezbollah in an Era of Transformation: From the Deterrence Equation to the Test of Readaptation.” The article examines the changes the war has imposed on Hezbollah’s position within Lebanon and the wider regional order, arguing that the movement has shifted from being an actor with considerable strategic latitude within the deterrence equation to one increasingly constrained by domestic, regional, and international pressures. It further analyzes Hezbollah’s efforts to balance preserving its role within the Iranian-led axis while avoiding a comprehensive military confrontation that Lebanon can no longer afford.

In his article, “ Hedging Its Bets: Egypt’s Calculated Position in the US-Israeli War on Iran,” Egyptian researcher Mohamed Affan analyzes Egypt’s wartime policy as a model of “flexible positioning,” aimed at maintaining a delicate balance between preserving its strategic partnership with the United States, demonstrating solidarity with the Gulf states, avoiding direct involvement in the conflict, and mitigating the consequences of expanding Israeli influence on Egyptian national security. The article also examines the war’s implications for energy security, the Suez Canal, Egypt’s relations with the Gulf, and Cairo’s evolving role as a regional mediator rather than the traditional leader of the Arab regional order.

In “The Regional Landscape After the War: Between the Test of Stability and the Reconfiguration of Power Balances,” Professor of Political Sociology Bader Al-Madi offers a comprehensive assessment of the Middle East’s post-war trajectory. Through an analysis of the structural transformations affecting the regional order, he argues that the region is moving beyond the era of traditional geopolitical alignments toward a more fluid and complex strategic environment. The article explores the war’s implications for Iran, the Gulf states, the Levant, Egypt, Iraq, and Israel, demonstrating how each actor is redefining its strategic priorities and policy instruments in response to the declining effectiveness of conventional deterrence, the rising costs of regional influence, and the emergence of pragmatism and risk management as defining principles of the evolving Middle Eastern order.

The Palestine section features an article by Professor of Political Science Ibrahim Rabay’a, entitled “Palestine at the Heart of the Regional Storm: Siege, Marginalization, and Replacement.” The article examines how the regional war has reshaped the place of the Palestinian question within the Middle East’s strategic priorities. It argues that one of the conflict’s most consequential outcomes has been the shift of Palestine from the center of regional and international attention to a secondary issue within a new security agenda focused on Iran, energy, and regional connectivity. The article further explores how Israel has capitalized on this strategic realignment to expand its policies in Gaza and the West Bank, accelerating measures of siege, settlement expansion, and demographic displacement amid declining international pressure and mounting challenges facing both the Palestinian Authority and the broader Palestinian national cause.

The issue concludes with two book reviews that broaden the intellectual scope of the discussion. Angela El Fayez, a researcher at the Politics and Society Institute (PSI), reviews America’s Middle East: Ruination of A Region by the American scholar Marc Lynch. The review highlights Lynch’s critical assessment of U.S. policy in the Middle East since the end of the Cold War, emphasizing the continuity of American strategic objectives related to regional dominance, Israel’s security, and the management of regional balances. In addition, Assistant Researcher Maryam Al-Btoush reviews Islamists After October 7: The Questions of Identity and Destiny, which examines the future of Islamist movements in the aftermath of the October 7 events by tracing the transformation of their political roles and their relationships with the state, armed resistance, the Axis of Resistance, and jihadist movements, while assessing the future of Islamist actors in Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and beyond.

The fifth issue of the journal-whose Arabic edition will be released in the coming days-concludes that the U.S.–Israeli war against Iran has not only exposed the limitations of traditional deterrence in the Middle East, but has also raised broader questions concerning the meaning of sovereignty, the future of alliances, the costs of regional influence, and the place of Arab states within a rapidly evolving regional and international order. The issue argues that the next phase will not be determined solely by the outcome of military confrontation, but by the ability of states and societies to redefine their strategic interests and develop more independent, adaptive, and resilient approaches to navigating a world in which geopolitics increasingly intersects with economics, security with public opinion, and traditional alliances with emerging configurations of power.

The Jordanian Politics and Society Journal (JPS) is published by the Politics and Society Institute (PSI), an independent think-and-do tank dedicated to producing high-quality policy research and analytical knowledge, advancing informed debate on political and social issues in Jordan and the wider region, and strengthening the link between academic research, public policy, and the public sphere.

Click here to download the fifth issue of the journal in English

The Arabic edition will be released in the coming days