Water Security in Jordan: Drivers, Constraints, and Policy Pathways

Jordan is facing a structural water crisis that can no longer be explained solely by natural resource scarcity or by climatic and demographic pressures. It is now directly linked to governance structures, limited negotiating capacity, and the prolonged deferral of sovereign decision-making in resource management. Per capita renewable freshwater availability stands at approximately 61 cubic meters annually—an extremely low level compared to the internationally recognized water scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters per person per year. This reality places the water sector at the core of national stability, with increasing implications for economic, service-related, and sovereign decision-making. Under current weak water management conditions, this situation carries the potential to evolve into a tangible threat, particularly due to a set of factors that have directly impacted water resources.

Domestically, water resources are affected by weak operational management, declining efficiency of dams and storage systems, and accelerating demographic and economic pressures, alongside over-extraction and the absence of effective enforcement against illegal use. The deterioration is further compounded by high levels of water loss within distribution networks, uneven allocation across governorates, and widening gaps in water equity between urban and rural areas. Low-income households bear a disproportionate financial burden for intermittent and uneven-quality services, adding a direct social dimension to the crisis.

There is also a clear imbalance in water allocation across sectors, with agriculture consuming the largest share of water resources while contributing only a relatively modest portion to GDP—estimated at around 6–7%. This reality calls for a reassessment of allocation priorities and the economic efficiency of each cubic meter used, linking water policy directly to production, food security, and labor market policies.

These challenges are further exacerbated by external factors, most notably climate change and the geopolitics of water, transforming the issue into one of national security—especially given that Jordan shares approximately 26% of its water resources with neighboring countries. The interaction of these factors has had profound implications for food security, rural stability, urban service quality, energy costs, youth employment opportunities, and social equity, making water management a central pillar of overall state stability.

Transboundary water agreements represent a critical component of the crisis structure. There is a clear gap between formal provisions and actual compliance, particularly in the context of the 1994 peace treaty, which has not secured stable water shares for Jordan as stipulated. This has pushed the state toward costly and temporary alternatives to cover deficits. Moreover, several analyses suggest that these arrangements have not been fully equitable in distributing water benefits between the parties.

A key structural issue also lies in the weakness of national negotiating capacities, whether in managing shared basins or engaging in international climate finance platforms. The water file is often treated as a purely technical matter, limiting the ability to impose fair terms or transform crises into strategic and financial opportunities. This is evident in cases such as the Disi aquifer, the absence of binding legal protocols governing extraction, and the limited capacity to develop a unified negotiating discourse integrating legal, economic, and climate dimensions.

Accordingly, water security in Jordan is no longer merely an environmental or service-related issue. It has become a deferred sovereign decision, with accumulating economic, political, and social costs over time. The persistence of the crisis imposes significant fiscal burdens on the national budget due to reliance on deep groundwater extraction, high-cost energy, and the financing of desalination and conveyance projects, in addition to political costs associated with dependence on donors and structurally imposed regional cooperation.

In response, the policy paper issued by the Politics and Society Institute proposes three integrated policy pathways:

First, large-scale desalination as the primary strategic option to enhance long-term supply, particularly through the National Carrier Project, which could provide a sustainable water source and reduce reliance on shared resources. However, it requires substantial investment and accompanying reforms in governance, energy, and loss reduction.

Second, expanding the reuse of treated wastewater in agriculture as a medium-cost, medium-term option that alleviates pressure on freshwater resources and improves sectoral allocation efficiency, while necessitating regulatory oversight and the building of social trust.

Third, demand management and public awareness as a complementary, low-cost, and rapidly implementable option aimed at reducing consumption and improving efficiency, though insufficient on its own to address the structural deficit.

The key issue is not choosing between these pathways, but rather constructing a strategic sequencing that integrates them—starting with governance reform and loss reduction, expanding reuse, and investing in desalination over the long term, alongside rebuilding the national negotiating apparatus and reducing financial dependency.

In this context, the National Carrier Project (Aqaba–Amman desalination) stands out as the most prominent strategic option for long-term supply enhancement, with expectations to meet approximately 45% of municipal water demand by 2040. However, its effectiveness will remain contingent upon reducing high water losses and implementing governance reforms to ensure that increased supply translates into actual water security.

The paper concludes that the cost of inaction in the water sector may ultimately exceed the cost of any available investment option. Accordingly, it proposes a set of phased policy pathways, prioritizing a strategically viable and time-phased solution as the least costly option in the long run.

To download the full paper, please follow the link below.