Politics and Society Institute: Three Potential Scenarios for the Future of the Amra City Project

The Politics and Society Institute has issued a policy paper titled “The Amra City Project: Between Developmental Ambition and the Requirements of Political and Institutional Sustainability.” The paper examines the Amra City Project as one of the largest proposed planning interventions aimed at redirecting urban growth in Jordan, in the context of rapid urban and demographic expansion and the mounting pressures this places on infrastructure, water and energy resources, transport networks, and overall quality of life in major cities.

In its executive summary, the paper explains that the Amra City Project seeks to break the “single-head” pattern of Amman by establishing a new urban center east of the capital, thereby contributing to a redistribution of population and economic growth away from the traditional core. It notes that the planning rationale for developing a new city has become increasingly realistic given existing urban bottlenecks; however, the project’s success depends less on its theoretical justification than on its capacity to address fundamental challenges related to governance, financing, and sustainability.

The policy paper also outlines the financial and economic philosophy underpinning the project, which is based on a non-traditional approach to public investment. This approach centers on transforming a low-value—or previously market-valueless—asset into a developmental engine capable of generating cumulative economic value, rather than treating it as a fiscal burden or a static asset. Prior to state intervention, the land on which the project is being developed lacked genuine investment value in terms of location, readiness, or market demand. State intervention—acting as a primary economic agent—redefined this value at its core.

The paper further explains that the current institutional model, which relies on implementing the project through the Jordanian Cities and Facilities Development Company, offers important operational flexibility. At the same time, it raises concerns regarding the multiplicity of decision-making centers, the allocation of responsibilities, and the project’s long-term continuity. It also highlights that heavy reliance on public–private partnerships and land-value capture renders the project particularly sensitive to financing volatility and investor confidence.

Three Scenarios for Project Development

Based on a forward-looking scenario analysis, the policy paper identifies three potential trajectories for the evolution of the Amra City Project:

Scenario One: The Sustainable City and the New Urban Pole

This scenario assumes the availability of financing and the completion of major water and transport projects. If these conditions are met, Amra City could evolve into a sustainable new urban pole capable of absorbing between 20% and 30% of projected population growth and playing a meaningful urban and economic role in easing pressure on the capital.

Scenario Two: Slow Growth and a Limited-Residential Urban Space

Identified by the paper as the most likely scenario, this path involves the implementation of only minimal facilities, alongside delays in residential attractors and high-capacity mass transit. Under such conditions, the city would remain a limited residential space, leaving urban pressure on Amman largely unchanged.

Scenario Three: Stagnation and Transformation into a Fiscal Burden

This scenario entails the risk of project stagnation in the event of liquidity shortages, delays in strategic water and energy projects, or shifts in government priorities. In such a case, the project could become a fiscal burden and undermine public trust in urban planning policies.

Conditional Phased Postponement

Based on this scenario analysis, the policy paper leans toward favoring a path of conditional, phased postponement coupled with a redesign of the governance and financing model prior to large-scale population settlement. This approach is presented as the option with the lowest long-term strategic cost. The paper links this pathway to a shift from the logic of a “real estate developer” to that of a “development maker,” through integrated economic planning, a clear and independent governance framework, phased implementation tied to performance indicators, prioritization of the social dimension, and transparent provision of information necessary to assess risks and returns.

The Politics and Society Institute is an independent Jordanian think-and-do tank, established in 2020. It works to produce applied knowledge and bridge research with public policy through analytical studies, workshops, and dialogue with decision-makers, contributing to policy development and evidence-based national debate.

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