A study titled: “The Islamic State in Africa: Trajectories of Expansion and Transformations up to 2025”
This study examines how the so-called “Islamic State” (ISIS) shifted from the model of a centralized caliphate-previously directed from Iraq and Syria-to a decentralized structure built on relatively autonomous local franchises across Africa. This transformation followed the collapse of the organization’s central command in the Levant and the emergence of a highly unstable African environment marked by state fragility. Multiple factors-such as ethnic conflicts, widening security vacuums, and institutional weakness-created fertile ground for ISIS to reconstitute itself through flexible networks that no longer rely on hierarchical leadership but instead draw on ideological affinity and the capacity of each branch to adapt to local conditions.
The study identifies four main models representing the organization’s most prominent African “provinces”: the West Africa Province (formerly Boko Haram factions), Ansar al-Sharia in Libya, the Sahel Province, and the Horn of Africa branch. Analysis of these cases shows that each entity adopted a distinct expansion strategy shaped by its sociopolitical and geographic environment. In West Africa, ISIS reorganized itself by integrating splinter groups from Boko Haram into a more disciplined command structure, exploiting the fragility of the Lake Chad Basin. In Libya, the shift of Ansar al-Sharia toward ISIS illustrated the group’s ability to capitalize on the chaos of a collapsed state, though subsequent military strikes significantly curtailed its territorial presence. In the Sahel, decentralization became the decisive factor behind the rise of the Sahel Province, which relied on tribal alliances and the fluid movement of fighters across Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Meanwhile, the Horn of Africa branch continues to operate in a competitive environment with al-Shabaab, relying on local and international funding networks and leveraging sensitive maritime routes along the Red Sea.
The analysis concludes that the rise of ISIS in Africa reflects an interplay between transnational jihadist ideology and localized grievances, making the continent the “new theater” of global jihadism. Understanding this shift toward decentralization is essential for explaining the organization’s persistence and growth, and provides a critical framework for anticipating future trajectories and assessing their implications for regional security and the evolution of conflicts across the continent.
The significance of the study lies not only in mapping the group’s geographic spread but also in explaining how ISIS has evolved into a multi-centered, decentralized network that interacts with-and exploits-local crises to continually regenerate itself. The paper further demonstrates that this structural transformation is what enabled the organization to endure despite its territorial defeat in Iraq and Syria, as its African branches now operate with greater autonomy and enhanced operational flexibility.
The Explanatory Model (Analytical Framework)
This model explains the expansion of ISIS in Africa through the interaction of four interrelated analytical layers: structural factors, local integration dynamics, international drivers, and the security environment. The intersection of these layers demonstrates how the organization is continually reproduced across different contexts-not as an external or transient phenomenon, but as one embedded within local and regional structures.
Structural factors refer to the deep-rooted conditions that constitute a fertile environment for the organization’s growth. These include state fragility and the limited capacity of governments to exert authority over rural peripheries and borderlands, creating sovereign vacuums exploited by extremist groups. Economic crises and social marginalization further expose rural populations to poverty, unemployment, lack of services, and developmental neglect, allowing violent organizations to position themselves as sources of income or protection for marginalized groups. Ethnic and tribal configurations-such as the Fulani, Tuareg, Dogon, and others-play a critical role in reproducing sub-national identities and conflicts, creating entry points that groups like ISIS can manipulate. Additionally, vast geographical expanses, rugged terrain, and the inability of local armies to maintain widespread deployment provide the organization with superior mobility and concealment. Together, these structural factors form the foundational layer that shapes the environment’s susceptibility to ISIS expansion.
Local integration dynamics explain how ISIS embeds itself within local social structures rather than remaining an external, imported entity. The concept of the “Africanization of jihad” is central here, as the organization absorbs local grievances related to land, authority, and tribal influence, tailoring its discourse to resonate with African contexts. ISIS relies heavily on tribal alliances, social networks, and pragmatic relationships with community leaders, rural militias, smuggling rings, and factions that have defected from al-Qaeda, making it part of the local fabric. Internal competition among jihadist movements-such as the fragmentation of Ansar al-Sharia, the split in Boko Haram between Shekau and al-Barnawi, and ISIS’s rivalry with Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin-provides opportunities for ISIS to attract fighters and expand its influence. Non-state and illicit economies-including human smuggling, gold trafficking, narcotics, coercive taxation, and kidnapping for ransom-serve as independent revenue streams that strengthen the group’s expansion capacity. Through these mechanisms, ISIS becomes socially embedded rather than merely an extension of a foreign organization.
International drivers illustrate how regional and global power dynamics shape the group’s expansion. The withdrawal of traditional powers-especially France-and the dismantling of Operation Barkhane in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso created a military vacuum that facilitated ISIS’s rise. Conversely, the entry of new actors such as Russia and the Wagner Group, and the subsequent reconfiguration of regional power balances, produced weakened security coordination and competing claims to legitimacy, generating exploitable gaps. The reduced international commitment to counterterrorism-amid shifting U.S. priorities toward Asia-further diminished security investment across Africa, leaving space for ISIS to grow. Global media warfare also plays a central role: ISIS affiliates in Africa draw heavily on the propaganda and ideological framing of the core organization, amplifying narratives of victimhood and boosting recruitment both locally and internationally. As a result, Africa becomes a key theater within the global jihadist network rather than a purely local phenomenon.
The security environment sheds light on how ISIS exploits operational vulnerabilities and adapts its tactics. The organization takes advantage of vast border gaps across Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, as well as Libya, Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia, establishing fluid movement networks that are difficult to control. African armies suffer from equipment shortages, limited training, weak air support, institutional corruption, and internal divisions-conditions that grant ISIS operational superiority. The proliferation of competing militias further enhances the organization’s ability to maneuver and integrate, as seen in Libya and the broader Sahel region. ISIS relies on guerrilla warfare tactics, including hit-and-run attacks, complex ambushes, targeted assassinations, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and raids on isolated villages, giving it greater flexibility and resilience compared to conventional armies. These operational characteristics provide the organization with a high degree of adaptability.
In sum, this explanatory model shows that ISIS’s expansion in Africa cannot be understood through a single lens, but rather through the interaction of four layers:
- Structural Factors: Determine the environment’s susceptibility to hosting the organization.
- Local Integration Factors: Explain how the organization becomes embedded within the local community.
- International Factors: Clarify the external vacuums that facilitate its expansion.
- Security Environment: Illustrate the operational tools and mechanisms of expansion.
To download the study (In Arabic)