Shifting Sands in the Middle East: The Post-‘Axis of Resistance’ Phase

The Israeli-Iranian war reflects a shift in the dynamics governing regional relations in the Middle East. It embodies a significant development in Israel’s new security doctrine—moving from a defensive security perspective to a strategy of offence, dominance, and long-range deterrence. This expansion stretches from eastern Iran to southern Yemen. It aims at eliminating key threats that have evolved incrementally since the occupation of Iraq and the rise of Iranian influence, culminating in the al-Aqsa Flood operation, which marked a significant turning point in Israel’s transition to new regional security paradigms.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not exaggerating when, at the outset of al-Aqsa Flood and the subsequent genocidal war on Gaza, he declared his intent to change the face of the Middle East. That moment marked the starting whistle for launching the Israeli right-wing project—particularly Netanyahu’s—from a phase of planning and strategising to one of active execution. This began with the destruction of Gaza, the elimination of Hamas, then Hezbollah, but the ultimate prize has always been the “head of the Iranian nuclear programme”.

Netanyahu has already crippled Iran’s regional proxies and is now targeting the “head of the octopus”. According to Israeli estimates, he has managed to delay Iran’s nuclear programme by several more years. It is likely that, after the war, he will cooperate with the American administration to pressure Iran into further nuclear concessions, followed by attempts to neutralise or even dismantle the regime from within by undermining its ideological legitimacy.

While Tehran has thus far endured the initial blows—relatively speaking—and managed to retaliate forcefully against Israel, the structure of international power balances and the American posture, marked by watchful anticipation of the right moment to intervene (diplomatically or militarily), limits the potential gains Iran can achieve in this confrontation!

The next phase in the American-Israeli project entails ending Iranian influence in Iraq—following its rollback in Lebanon—alongside the fall of the Syrian regime, the destruction of Hamas’s military infrastructure in Gaza, and the termination of its rule. The U.S. is expected to act decisively to diminish Iranian influence, which is already weakening due to the nature of its hegemony, its mishandling of Iraq’s youth, and Iran’s apparent willingness to abandon its allies. These shifts have led those allies to question the value of their relationship with Tehran, particularly when Iran has proven unable to protect them or treat them as true partners.

The dismantling of the “Axis of Resistance” is thus one of the most consequential variables in the emerging regional landscape. Iran is no longer functioning as a robust regional power. It is likely to turn inward to address significant domestic crises, possibly descending into political chaos and polarisation, especially with the decline of the conservative faction following recent military and political setbacks.

Concurrently, the rise of non-state and semi-state actors that defined the previous transitional phase is also waning. Iran’s strategy had heavily relied on these militias to play dual military and political roles, capitalising on regional chaos and state failure. Today, however, Hezbollah is being re-contained within the framework of the Lebanese state; Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has shifted from an emirate in Idlib to a government anticipated to control the entire Syrian region; Iran-linked militias in Syria have lost their functional relevance; Hamas has effectively ceased to exist as a governing authority in Gaza; and hybrid actors like the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq—those who straddle formal power and militia autonomy—are now subject to restructuring and regulation. The Houthis remain as an outlier, geographically and politically outside the core of the Middle East, but they, too, will eventually be integrated into regional recalibration efforts.

What, then, of the regional power dynamics and the question of hegemony?

Netanyahu’s current policies aim to redefine Israel as a regional beast—militarily unchallenged and armed with absolute deterrence. By destroying Iran’s capabilities and minimising its regional role, Israel paves the way to revive the notion of “regional peace”, which had emerged in earlier years and birthed the Abraham Accords. These agreements circumvented the traditional condition of resolving the Palestinian issue. This condition had been central to the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, which tied Arab States’ normalisation with Israel to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The new Israeli outlook assumes that military superiority will redefine Israel’s regional role and relationships, culminating in peace and normalisation with Saudi Arabia. Yet this perspective overlooks the profound shift in Saudi strategic thinking that has occurred since the events of October 7, 2023, two years ago. As noted by American scholar Vali Nasr in an essential article in Foreign Affairs titled “The New Balance of Power in the Middle East,” Saudi Arabia’s rising regional role and recalibrated ties with the U.S. under Trump now aim to build a new balance of power—not with Israel, but against it and Netanyahu’s aggressive policies.

This was evident in Riyadh’s condemnation of the Israeli attacks on Iran, its public condolences for Iranian casualties, and its continued criticism of Netanyahu’s government. Saudi Arabia has reasserted that any path to normalisation must include the establishment of a Palestinian state.

While military power remains a decisive element in the regional balance, and Israel’s dominance could be solidified if Iran is neutralised, this would remain an exclusively military superiority. It would not be accepted as legitimate by the region’s states and peoples. It is prompting an observable convergence among Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. This new regional alignment, led by Saudi Arabia, derives strength from its robust relations with Europe, the United States, as well as China and Russia. Especially if Netanyahu proceeds with further efforts to dismantle the Palestinian national project in Jerusalem and the West Bank, the crisis with Israel is likely to intensify further.

The sands of the Middle East continue to shift. The region is undergoing a continuous transformation, with rules of engagement still unsettled. Yet it is certain that the Israeli dream of regional hegemony will not bring peace or stability—it will only sow further crises, conflict, and chaos.