Commentaries

Israel’s New Dilemma

Despite Benjamin Netanyahu’s rhetoric about pressing ahead with a project of Israeli regional dominance, alongside political discourse centered on reshaping the Middle East and transforming Israel’s security doctrine from defense to regional influence, it is becoming increasingly clear that important reassessments are now taking place within Israel regarding the lessons drawn from the wars it has fought since October 7,…

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Political Identity in Question: The Ummah Party and Its Political Rivals

On April 18th, 2026, “Jabhat Al Amal Al Islami” party announced its intention to rename itself as “Al Ummah” Party. When the government approved the change a few days later, what drew attention was not what the party changed, but what it chose to keep: the green color held its place at the core of the party’s visual identity, the…

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Nawaf Salam’s Visit to Damascus: Testing a New Relationship

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s visit to Syria comes at a complex transitional moment in the region, not only because it represents the first visit of this level since the major transformations Syria has undergone, but also because it reflects the fact that Lebanese-Syrian relations are no longer merely in a formative phase. Rather, they have already entered a stage…

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From Crossing Point to Strategic Asset: Rethinking Jordan’s Borders

Hours of waiting at the King Hussein Bridge may prove more consequential than major political decisions. From this perspective, the significance of the recent agreement signed between the Ministry of Awqaf and Islamic Affairs and Royal Jordanian Airlines becomes clear. Signed in the presence of the Ministers of Awqaf and Transport, the five-year agreement aims to provide integrated services for…

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Managing Conflict in Lebanon: Saudi-Arab Momentum as a Mechanism for Regulating Regional Balances

Lebanon today does not appear to be standing at the threshold of a political settlement so much as it is embedded within an intensive phase of crisis management—one in which balances are being carefully regulated to prevent explosion, while the conditions for a genuine resolution remain absent. The intersecting political and field-level indicators suggest that the key regional and international…

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Negotiating Under Fire: Lebanon’s Position in the Reconfiguration of Regional Negotiation Tracks

The announcement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the launch of direct negotiations with Lebanon, in parallel with U.S. efforts to convene a preparatory meeting in Washington, marked a turning point in the course of the ongoing war. It shifted the Lebanese file from the framework of open military confrontation to the threshold of an unstable negotiating track. This…

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Scorched Earth Policy: The Road to a New Security Belt

The conflict along the Lebanese border is entering a different phase, one in which military objectives are intertwined with attempts to reshape both the geographic and demographic realities. This trajectory is reflected in the statements of Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz: “We will establish a buffer zone inside southern Lebanon and maintain control over it.” Such statements do not appear…

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The End Game Inside Iran: Reformists vs Conservatives

The outbreak of war in 2026 has profoundly reshaped Iran’s political landscape, intensifying long-standing tensions between reformist and conservative currents within the Islamic Republic. Conventional wisdom suggests that wartime conditions-marked by heightened securitization, centralization of authority, and intolerance for dissent-inevitably marginalize reformist actors, by subordinating political pluralism to regime survival. Indeed, early assessments point to the consolidation of power among…

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Projected Military Scenarios of a War Between the United States and Iran and Their Regional Implications

The war between the United States and Iran represents a qualitative shift in the structure of regional security, marking a transition from indirect deterrence to an open, multi-layered conflict. The conflict has moved beyond a bilateral confrontation to assume the character of a multi-front regional war spanning Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Gulf, and the Red Sea. The behavior of both…

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From al-Afghani to Shariati: A Reading in the Formation of the Iranian Intellectual Field

If Iran drew its political boundaries early-at the Treaty of Qasr-e Shirin in 1639-it did not delineate its intellectual boundaries with the same clarity except across a full century of upheaval, inquiry, and the redefinition of the self. The modern Iranian intellectual field did not emerge solely from the Islamic Revolution, nor did it take shape in a single moment…

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