Syrian Refugees in Jordan: Complicated Crises and Absence of Solutions
The Syrian refugee crisis is worsening year after year. It continues to surface with various challenges and repercussions, especially with the local transformations in the host countries, including Jordan, and regional-international transformations, with the persistence of the difficulty in reaching a political solution in the Syrian conflict, and even its diversity and complexity, with constitutes of the politically, militarily and security instability in Syria, which has affected the future of Syrian refugees and exacerbated its consequences.
In addition, the issue of the decline in international funds provided to the host countries, some of which suffer from deteriorating economic conditions in light of the limited resources, as it seems that the priorities of international organizations are changing, as a result of the escalation of crises in the international level and it’s complexities, starting with the global pandemic (Covid-19) crisis, followed by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict thus, this article discusses the Syrian refugee issue from Jordan’s dimensions at the local level, and the availability of objective conditions for the return of refugees to Syria, and attempts to explore the mentality of the Syrian regime in dealing with this issue.
Syrian refugees; from a Jordanian perspective
Jordan today is dealing with multiple crises that seem to be long and critical, especially in dealing with the challenges of the Syrian refugee crisis. The complexities of this crisis in Jordan are intertwined at the local level and are surrounded by determinants, the most prominent of which are three within this level. The dilemma of Syrian refugees in Jordan appears starting from the census of the number of refugees, where the statistics announced by the Jordanian government, which estimates more than 1.3 million refugees[1], which vary with the statistics issued by the Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), where the latter announces the presence of more than 600 thousand refugees[2].
In addition, Jordanian statistics indicate that the number of births of Syrian refugees has reached more than 230 thousand births since 2011[3], and there is no doubt that the increase in the population adds more pressure on the limited resources, as Jordan is one of the largest host countries for refugees compared to its population[4].
Secondly; The decline in international funds constitutes a serious dilemma for Jordan and for the refugees themselves, in light of the difficult economic conditions that both parties are witnessing, as the lowest percentage of funding in 2023 amounted to about 29.2% of the estimated funding of Jordan Response Plan to the Syrian crisis[5], which intersects with the dynamics of the work of international organizations and donors. this is believed to reach the maximum point of funding for the crisis after 10 years, which so-called the “Peak Point”, a point by which donors commit to providing support and funding to host countries for a short period, as the Syrian refugee crisis exceeds that point, which entered its fourteenth year, this year.
Therefore, the importance of international responsibility increases in the face of the dilemma of funding the basic refugees, especially in light of the fears of the existence of international trends aimed at localizing (passing the responsibility to the host countries) which reflect a serious dilemma for Jordan particularly, while stressing that Jordan rejects any solutions that perpetuate the enduring situation of refugees in Jordan.
Thirdly, a recent report indicates that 97% of Syrian refugees in Jordan are not considering returning to Syria at least in the coming year[6], and another report indicates that the proportion of returnees from countries at the regional level is increasing[7]. While the high percentage of returnees from neighboring countries is due to several reasons, which may appear in Lebanon and Turkey, where Turkey witnessed an outbreak of violence and riots against Syrian refugees during the previous months of this year[8], which led to the return of some of them to areas in the north of Syria, in conjunction with the rise of the nationalist anti-refugee right wings in Turkey, on the other hand, the campaigns of forced deportation against Syrians refugees in Lebanon have increased[9] for several reasons that are somewhat similar to the societal reasons in Turkey, perhaps most notably the adoption of political currents the need for the return of them, although not voluntary.
In the same context, the increase in the number of returnees raised questions about its causes and objectives, especially from Jordan, although the return is minimal, as the environment in Jordan has shown that it is more peaceful with the refugees, as a result of the societal values that are not exposed to them. there are no compelling factors in Jordanian society compared to the situation of Syrian refugees in other countries, in addition to the fact that the security and economic reality in Syria does not encourage refugees to return; Which is counterbalanced by Jordanian policies that do not seem to follow the path taken by other countries, and emphasizes on the voluntary return.
The Syrian Scene; Obstacles on Refugee’s Return
Syria today is divided between four main conflicting parties, which are represented by the Syrian regime, the Syrian Democratic Forces ” SDF”, the factions of the Syrian National Army and Hayʼat Tahrir ash-Sham
(Organization for the Liberation of the Levant), in addition to the foreign military presence of several countries, this scene indicates the lack of stability and the absence of a horizon for Syrian-Syrian or international understandings, except with specific exceptions. therefore, dealing with the refugee issue in fragmented approaches exacerbates the humanitarian situation and contributes to creating political chaos and instability, especially with conflicts of interest between the parties, each party has different priorities, which adds more suffering for the Syrian refugees.
In addition, the ongoing military operations between the parties of the conflict, led to the collapse and destruction of infrastructure, where the percentage of damage reached about 40%[10], considered a high level[11], while the attacks continued despite the magnitude of the destruction. perhaps the latest of these is the clash of Arab tribal forces with the SDF in Deir Ezzor[12], in addition to the lack of political and economic stability; the insecurity spread in Daraa, especially since the largest proportion of refugees in Jordan are from Daraa according to UNHCR data, in conjunction with the continuation of protests and manifestations of escalation in As Suewida governorate[13], which had its specificity since the outbreak of the crisis and in other Syrian provinces.
In addition; The areas that witness a good level of stability and are under the control of the Syrian regime suffer from a deteriorating and debilitating economic situation, which is caused by the emergence of the effects of the economy of fighting and war, where some Syrians rely on remittances from relatives abroad, in light of the deteriorating economic conditions and lack of purchasing power, as 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line[14]. The regime-controlled areas also suffer from real crises in terms of the absence of basic services, the most prominent of which is a suffocating electrical crisis[15]. consequently, the lack of objective conditions is still present, as the reasons for refugees, both security and economic reasons, are still present and prevent their return. Accordingly, the return of refugees requires the provision of adequate objective conditions and the provision of an acceptable level of basic elements of life, including basic services, such as the provision of electricity and the rehabilitation of infrastructure such as schools and hospitals. However, talking about all the above seems to be early to maintain the aforementioned factors and the lack of basic needs in both the security and economic aspects. this supported by the UN refugee platforms on the lack of conditions for their voluntary return[16].
The Syrian Regime; Conditional rehabilitation for return
The current framework of the crisis is not likely to fold the conflict and return Syrian refugees without a real solution, and this context emphasizes the importance of understanding the mentality of the Syrian regime in dealing with the refugee issues, as several data indicate the regime’s tendency to achieve gains from the issue of refugee at different levels and is considered the most controversial file for the refugees themselves. The question of military service inside Syria, which the regime does not exemption of the refugees, and the file of refugees is not treated in a special way that takes into account their difficult situation but classifies anyone who is outside the Syrian borders as a “Non-resident”, the term includes a generalization of Syrians who may have left of their own free will, and does not provide special situation to refugees who have forcibly left their land leaving their properties and assets, and although the regime has made amendments to the Military Service Law, it may aim to introduce foreign currency into the treasury, according to researchers; The exemption from legal service requires the payment of a sum of money[17], which amounted to 10 thousand dollars for those who have resided outside Syria for a year, and the amount varies according to the period (inversely) spent by the “defaulting on military service” outside Syria.
Syrian refugees are ranked first as the largest proportion of refugees in the world[18], and the consideration of their return may of course be limited due to the factors and reasons that perpetuate the Syrian crisis, according to researchers, the regime does not want to return this large number of refugees in different regions. the reasons for this unwillingness may be its inability to deal with the great weight that will result from their return – if they accept to return voluntarily– or their retention as a key negotiating file with international parties, as the regime is understood to hold on to the issues of reconstruction and early recovery as a condition for receiving refugees, which is logical in principle. However, the main paradox and dilemma in this aspect is that the Syrian regime includes the economic aspect, and ignores the security and political necessities, which effectively contributes to the chances of stability that leads to reconstruction, and thus the voluntary return of refugees. this seems to indicate the Syrian regime’s lack of seriousness in dealing with the political solution to the conflict, which is considered a landmark step in most aspects related to refugees and displaced peoples, and all its consequences.
In any case, the problem of whether the regime wants the refugees to return remains a real one, followed by the extent to which it can secure them in the event of a limited, conditional, and selective return. To support this argument; The erosion of confidence in the Syrian regime’s intentions toward humanitarian issues, for example, the regime’s response to the earthquake that hit areas in northern Syria in early 2023, when the Syrian regime obstructed the shipment of[19] necessary aid to those affected and refused the delivery of humanitarian aid through border crossings from Turkey to northwestern Syria. Where the regime insisted that aid should enter the affected areas through the crossings and areas under his exclusive control.
Conclusion
The refugee issue is becoming more complex as the factors that destabilize the current situation in Syria continue, while the political and security aspects of the refugee issue are ignored. International and regional transformations may require the formulation of an agreed comprehensive path that considers the interests of the Syrian people and its establishment within a negotiating framework to facilitate the voluntary return of refugees through adoption by international parties and to add more pressure on the Syrian regime to complete it, as the Syrian conflict is intertwined and transcends its borders beyond the humanitarian dimension.
This requires the international community to continue to meet its humanitarian and political responsibilities toward refugees by placing restrictions on countries seeking to forcibly return refugees, especially in the absence of objective conditions in Syria. And to re-provide support to refugees in host countries, including Jordan, to ease the burden until comprehensive solutions are discussed that should consider their interests. In addition to the refugee issue, Jordan also faces other challenges related to the lack of stability inside Syria, the lack of security control on the common border, and the proliferation of security problems, including smuggling in all its forms, which is accompanied by the failure of the Syrian regime to take serious steps to facilitate the return of refugees to their country.
[1] ” Jordan is hosting 1.3 million Syrian refugees. Safadi discusses with the Syrian Foreign Minister the return of refugees”,23-09-2022, see: Jordan hosts 1.3 million Syrian refugees .. Safadi discusses with Syrian Foreign Minister the return of refugees | News | Al Jazeera Net (aljazeera.net)
[2] United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR(,” Jordan”, Seen 01-09-2024 Link: Jordan | UNHCR
[3] The Jordan Times, “Kingdom prioritises citizens’ needs over refugees — interior minister”, July 10 -2024, Link: Kingdom prioritises citizens’ needs over refugees — interior minister | Jordan Times
[4] Jordan News Agency, ” Al-Fariya: Jordan is the largest country hosting refugees in relation to population and government priority of its citizens”, 9-07-2024, see : Al-Fariya: Jordan is the largest country hosting refugees in relation to population and government priority of its citizens (petra.gov.jo)
[5] Jordan News Agency, ” 29.2% funding of Jordan response Plan to the Syrian crisis last year”, 17-02-2024, see: 29.2% funding of Jordan response Plan to the Syrian crisis last year (petra.gov.jo)
[6] Al-Ghad newspaper, ” 97% of Syrian refugees do not intend to return to their country”, 06-07-2024, see: 97% of Syrian refugees do not intend to return to their country… (alghad.com)
[7] Kingdom Channel, ” more than 4 thousand Syrian refugees returned from Jordan to his country in 7 months, an increase of 57%”, 27-08-2024, see: More than 4 thousand Syrian refugees returned from Jordan to his country in 7 months, an increase of 57% (almamlakatv.com)
[8] ” The Island, the Caesarean Events. Hundreds arrested in Turkey and death toll of protests in northern Syria”, 02-07-2024, see: Kayseri events. Hundreds arrested in Turkey and death toll of protests in northern Syria | News | Al Jazeera Net (aljazeera.net)
[9] Al-Quds Al-Arabi, ” the Season for the Displacement of Syrians in Lebanon into the Unknown,” 26-05-2024, see https://www.alquds.co.uk/%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%85-%d8%aa%d9%87%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%8a%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a5%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%87/
[10] Middle East newspaper, ” 530 billion and the destruction of 40% of the infrastructure … The losses of Syria in 9 years”, 28-05-2020, see: $530 billion and the destruction of 40% of the infrastructure … Syria’s losses in 9 years (aawsat.com)
[11] United Nations, ” UN concern over continued attacks on civilian infrastructure in Syria”, 18-01-2024, see: UN concern over continued attacks on civilian infrastructure in Syria | UN News (un.org)
[12] For Gezira, ” What is behind the confrontations between Arab tribes and the SDF in eastern Syria?”, 22-08-2024, see: What is behind the confrontations between Arab tribes and the SDF in eastern Syria? The Island (aljazeera.net)
[13] CNN Arabic , ” Local Media: A night of Armed escalation between factions and Security Services in Sweida,” 24-06-2024, see : Local Media: A night of Armed escalation between factions and Security Services in Sweida, CNN Arab
[14] “The Island, Syria. Economic paralysis and the private sector lay off employees”, 05-06-2024, see https://bitly.cx/0of9
[15] Syrian TV, ” Electricity crisis in Syria. Its dimensions and future”, 21-06-2024, see https://bitly.cx/t2ajz
[16] United Nations, ” UN Envoy: Syria remains in a state of deep conflict, refugees face worrying developments”, 22-07-2024, see UN Envoys : Syria remains in a state of deep conflict, refugees face worrying developments | UN News (un.org)
[17] Al-Jazeera, ” circular prevents Syrians from visiting their country .. Its significance and influence”, 28-06-2024, see https://bitly.cx/woonx
[18] CNN in Arabic,” Refugees by nationality and major Host countries”, 02-11-2023, see: Refugees by nationality and major Host countries. – CNN Arabic
[19] Human Rights Watch , ” Northwest Syria: Aid delays choke earthquake Survivors”, 15-02-2023, see: Northwest Syria: Aid delays choke earthquake Survivors | Human Rights Watch (hrw.org)