Labour’s Victory: Will there be a Shift in Palestine-Israel Policy?
The Labour Party achieved a landslide victory in the July 2024 UK general election. It is likely that British foreign policy will change as regards the Palestine-Israeli issue. Questions remain but analysts forecast that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s approach will differ from that of previous Conservative governments. Thus far, Starmer is emphasising a more pragmatic, reasonable and balanced approach. What does this mean?
Labour’s Shift from Corbynism
To anticipate the UK Labour government’s approach, it is important to consider its previous position. Under Jeremy Corbyn’s tenure (2015-2020), the party adopted a strongly anti-Zionist stance, which led to widespread accusations of “antisemitism” and internal divisions. This alienated significant voter demographics and damaged Labour’s reputation, prompting a shift back to more centrist politics under Starmer’s leadership. This includes distancing the party from previous controversial rhetoric and working to rebuild trust with the Jewish community—it has worked. This centrist and pragmatic approach is expected to extend to the UK Labour government’s foreign policy under Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Thus, Lammy’s position does not drastically differ from that of Keir Starmer’s, being balanced and pragmatic as regards the Palestine-Israel conflict. Both wish to rebuild trust with the Jewish community and move away from the rhetoric of Jeremy Corbyn’s era. Both also wish for a sustainable peace process, condemning Israeli settlement expansion. Lammy supports international efforts for peace and supports the UN, aligning with Starmer’s commitment to human rights and a two-state solution.
Internal Party Dynamics
Despite these earlier issues being seemingly resolved, internal strife and division within elements of the Labour Party, allies of Jeremy Corbyn, persist concerning Gaza which continues to challenge the harmony of the party. On July 24, seven Labour MPs had the whip suspended for six months after voting against the UK government on an amendment to scrap the UK’s two-child benefit cap, following which Jeremy Corbyn and four other independent MPs indicated they wish to work closely with the suspended ex-Labour MPs. Many more Labour MPs may well be aligned with the suspended MPs and Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour left, both in Islington North where Jeremy Corbyn ran as an independent and defeated the official Labour candidate and in Leicester, Dewsbury, Blackburn and Birmingham, implicitly supported independent Muslim candidates seeking election solely on a pro-Gaza platform, and in each case, Labour candidates lost. The Labour Party’s vote fell on average by 23% in seats where 20% or more of the population identify as Muslim. Senior Labour MPs in areas with large Muslim populations saw their majorities fall dramatically, including Starmer, Wes Streeting (now Secretary of State for Health and Social Care) and Shabana Mahmood (now Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice).
Hence, Starmer’s immediate expulsion of his critics on July 24 laid bare the fissure in the Labour Party, a major underlying reason for which is over Gaza. For the time being, Starmer’s majority of 158 (151 after the suspensions), appears to put him in an unassailable position. His expulsion of the seven MPs on July 24 warned off others whose support for a more radical pro-Gaza UK government policy is not yet openly declared.
Public Opinion and UK’s Foreign Policy
How Labour reflects on the question of Israel-Palestine can be analysed through a survey of British Public Opinion. A recent poll conducted prior to Labour’s victory reveals a generational divide in British public opinion. 59% of the millennials (quoted as “Generation Z”, those in their late twenties to early forties) support continued ceasefire protests, compared to 46% of those in their sixties and seventies (quoted as “Baby Boomers”) who indeed, oppose them. With 73% of “Generation Z” also advocating for halting arms sales to Israel, Labour will need to reflect on British Public Opinion to maintain the support of the younger electorate.
Labour’s recently renewed trust with the Jewish community does not in Labour’s view signify conflict in its support for a Palestinian state. Labour’s manifesto supports Palestine’s statehood. It is not as straightforward as Labour’s manifesto for the UK’s 2019 general election which pledged immediate and unilateral recognition, but Starmer instead in 2024 offers a more practical stance condemning unilateral actions which are said to undermine peace such as the Israeli expansion of settlements in the occupied territories. He proposes a sustainable resolution to the conflict and advocates Palestinian statehood as part of a broader peace process for coexistence and mutual recognition, favouring a more diplomatic approach. He maintains a strong stance regarding Labour’s commitment towards the advocacy of human rights and recognition of international law in a negotiated settlement, ultimately opposing all forms of annexation. He also emphasises the “clear and urgent need for a Gaza ceasefire”.
Upon winning the election, the UK Labour government decided to restore funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). From some perspectives, the decision may be controversial due to the UNRWA’s alleged ties to Hamas. However, Starmer and the UK Labour Government are driven by their firm commitment to internationalism, support for a rules-based international order (for instance, Lammy continues to support the ICC’s pursuit of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders), and their support for the UN. This approach aims to address the immediate humanitarian crisis, reflecting the UK Labour government’s balanced stance toward the needs of both Israelis and Palestinians, thus supporting diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.
Moreover, Labour’s party policy briefings endorse its support for the international fund for Palestine-Israeli peace, involving the trilateral participation of the EU, the Arab League and the United States to start peace talks and alleviate the appalling effects of the conflict on the population, including the economic and social impacts.
External factors have a significant bearing on the UK Labour government’s approach. For instance, the critical US-UK relationship means that on this issue the US and UK are likely to stay aligned. There is an added dependency on the US to compensate for the separation from the EU, particularly as regards mitigating the loss of frictionless EU trade with its single market. Growing bilateral trade with the US, security and foreign policies is thus very important for the UK. New free trade agreements with other countries, including if an agreement with India is successful, could ultimately cause some adjustment in the UK’s dependency on the US.
Furthermore, a potentially challenging factor which threatens this collaborative solution is the outcome of the upcoming November 2024 Presidential election. The Democrats and their candidate Vice President Kamala Harris align with the UK Labour government’s pragmatic and diplomatic stance in the region, conversely, a Trump-Vance win potentially may stress-test current US-UK close alignment, in particular, whether former President Donald Trump’s focus on unconditional support Israel, Trump often claims he was the most pro-Israel president in modern history, would ultimately undermine the two-state solution. That said, Trump’s relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is complex, becoming bitter after the 2020 presidential election when Netanyahu congratulated President Joe Biden on his victory. Trump has often said that he will seek a quick end to the conflict without specifying how this will be achieved. In the presidential debate in June, Trump used derogatory rhetoric towards Palestinians.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the consequences of a Republican Trump victory could mean significant pressure upon the UK Labour government to take a more pro-Israel stance to remain aligned with the US in maintaining a secure relationship, despite challenging differences in policy and potentially resulting in some compliance regarding policies. However, the UK Labour government would likely advocate balance by continuing support for human rights and a two-state solution. Achieving this by utilising multilateral diplomatic strategies, as well as seeking support from other partners such as the EU and the Arab League in favour of peace, while trying to avoid direct defiance with the US.
However, The UK Labour government faces major domestic challenges too. Fundamentally, the country is significantly in debt with large budget constraints and limited resources. For the UK Labour government to deliver their agenda and maintain power, public opinion will be critical. Internal party divisions are unlikely to materially compromise Starmer’s majority, at least for the time being, given his massive majority and the relative minority willing to openly voice strong pro-Gaza and pro-Corbyn opinions. However, Labour will need to balance its articulated support for Israel with advocacy for Palestinian statehood, which will encounter criticism from pro-Gaza public opinion. Maintaining this difficult balancing act will be crucial for the UK Labour government, especially in the context of widely held, populist views in the UK’s Muslim community.
In addition, how this is addressed will ultimately impact their policies moving forward, as the UK Labour government tries to exert pressure with the aim of bringing about a ceasefire to the conflict in Gaza, seeking to prevent the conflict from spreading to Lebanon, halting further Israeli settlement expansion, ensuring compliance with international laws and ultimately achieving a two-state solution. This could result amongst other things in diplomatic measures, public statements, and potentially supporting EU sanctions in response to further breaches.