Al-Safadi in Tehran: Among Two Competing Readings

Jordan’s Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, meets today, Sunday (8/4/2024), with the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani. The purpose of the meeting is to convey a message from King Abdullah II after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran during the inauguration of the Iranian president.

The Iranian government leaked news of the meeting in the early morning before Jordan officially announced the visit. Furthermore, the government spin implied that Al-Safadi intended to convince Tehran not to respond or sought to mediate between Iran and the Israelis and Americans. Therefore, the leaked news’ subtext implied that Tehran would supply Al-Safadi with two messages: one for the United States and Israel and one for Jordanian leadership.

The leaks indicate that messaging toward the United States and Israel will threaten an inevitable reprisal without an opportunity for mediation or retreat. Still, the message to the Jordanian side has remained unannounced. Most likely it relates to Jordan’s position and geographical location amidst these upcoming tensions and escalations, which will jeopardize national security, as the Jordanian government would be threatened in the event of missile exchanges between the two parties.

Exchanges between Israel and Iran last April will serve as a small rehearsal for what is expected this time, given Iranian leadership’s rhetoric. During that first exchange, Jordan provided reasoning for shooting down the Iranian drones, as Foreign Minister Ayman Al-Safadi stated at the time that Jordan’s skies are off limits to any party. Therefore, the country would down either Israeli or Iranian missiles if they threatened Jordan’s sovereignty.

Likewise, Al-Safadi’s most recent message indicates no intention to play the role of mediator between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Jordan has not previously played this role and does not intend to change now. Indeed, Qatar’s role as a mediator is well-established, as media outlets have reported that the United States has asked the country’s government to persuade Tehran not to respond to Haniyeh’s assassination.

Therefore, the real reason behind Al-Safadi’s visit to Tehran is to clarify both the Iranian and Jordanian governments’ intentions in the context of the most recent developments. Revealing these underlying aims, an Iranian newspaper asked whether there was any thought about an attack that would pass through Jordan’s airspace, indicating that Jordan’s national security has become part of the equation of regional tensions and confrontations.

In response, the Jordanian envoy has conveyed two main messages in my opinion. The first message is that Jordan is not a party to the conflict with Iran, but rather seeks to confront the government of Benjamin Netanyahu. Therefore, whatever information leaks from other members of this opposition concerning Jordan’s position is based on a false, reductive, and incorrect reading of the reality of Jordan’s position. In Jordan’s calculations, no country has taken a stronger political and diplomatic position than Jordan in supporting the Palestinians against Israeli aggression toward Gaza.

The second message is that Jordan does not accept foreign operations in Jordanian airspace, from one party or another, asserting full sovereignty over its territory. Thus, Jordan’s position is clear. It will not accept any missiles that cross its airspace from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, or even from the U.S. Army. This is the essence of Jordan’s position so that no one will misjudge or misinterpret any action undertaken by Jordan’s forces.

Domestically, there is necessarily a state of tension. The people in the streets are with Gaza and with the Palestinian people. Haniyeh’s assassination prompted a flood of marchers and protestors, and Jordan was one of the first countries to condemn the assassination Furthermore, the Jordanian ambassador participated in the leader’s burial ceremony in Qatar, and the state is sensitive to the national will, aligning security, diplomacy, and strategic aims toward political confrontation with the Israeli far-right government. This stance raises fears over the prospect of missiles in Jordanian airspace, as such a confrontation might lead Jordan to become involved in tensions the country has thus far attempted to avoid.

It is not a secret that there is a concern in Jordan about the eruption of the regional conflict against the backdrop of the current escalation. Jordan, which has protected independence and national security and overcome dangerous turning points, is fully aware that it is in the middle of a turbulent environment threatening to explode. Al-Safadi’s visit is therefore critically important to building a clear and mutual understanding of Jordan’s position concerning Tehran.