The Return of the Taliban: Geopolitical Questions and Strategic Implications

     Researchers and experts at the Institute for Politics and Society discussed a research paper entitled (The American Withdrawal from Afghanistan: A Reading of the Possible Causes and Consequences) by researcher Dr. Khaled Shanikat, the paper dealt with the effects of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, its causes and repercussions on regional and international powers, and the possible scenarios for these forces and the Taliban in the next phase.

     Al-Shinikat discussed the reasons for the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, explaining that China’s recent emergence as an economic power that is growing steadily and form a difficult number in the global economy, this prompted the United States to draw attention to the Pacific region, especially after China’s remarkable expansion in this region. Although interest in this matter began in the era of Obama and Trump, the increasing interest is even more during the reign of current US President Joe Biden due to the growing power and influence of China economically in the world and the increase in the cost of the war in Afghanistan, which is not useful for the American administration, especially since the war in Afghanistan does not pose a direct threat to the interests of Western countries, especially the United States.

     Al-Shenikat believes that the possible alternatives to the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan are the military deployment in the neighboring countries of Afghanistan, such as Pakistan, using new war technologies (Drones) at a lower cost, in addition to the possession of important cards in the exhausted Afghan economy by the United States, the most important of which are economic aid and frozen funds for Taliban leaders and the government. The former, which calls on the Taliban to self-review after their return to power to obtain international recognition and economic aid and to engage in the international community.

     Shneikat suggests that cooperation between the Taliban and al-Qaeda will continue in the form of “controlled cooperation”, meaning that al-Qaeda is not allowed to launch external attacks in light of the Doha Agreement and the Taliban’s interest in arranging the internal house. It has become more pragmatic, benefiting from its previous experiences, and is currently seeking to control the internal security situation and provide guarantees to international powers to obtain international recognition.

     Shnekat referred to the implications of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and stressed that Russia and Iran supported the Taliban movement during the American occupation period to drain the United States and exhaust it in an endless war. And the possible fears of the Taliban’s control of the countries of Russian influence. As for Iran, the withdrawal eased pressure on it and restored the space for it to play a greater role as a regional power in the region, especially with its common interests with India (developing the Iranian port of Chabahar and linking it via land routes through Afghanistan), as well as employing Iran is the cultural tool in Afghanistan by supporting the schools and cultural centers of the Shiite tribes and sects in it.

     For China, the file (East Turkestan and the rebel Uyghur minority in China) is the most important for it after the Taliban’s return to power, to ensure that the Uyghurs do not use Afghan lands as a home for terrorism, in addition to that China sees Afghanistan as a passage to Pakistan through the railways (linking the Belt of the Road) and a resource Economically, it is important that there is lithium in its territory for the production of electric cars, and any attempt to impede any Indian influence in Afghanistan.

     On the Pakistani side, the Taliban’s control of the government again serves them and allows them to consolidate their regional influence in the region, because Afghanistan is its strategic depth, and this matter also enhances the strengthening of its strategic alliance with China, but there is a possibility for the growth of extremist organizations again inside Afghanistan, threatening the regime in Pakistan. Despite its experience in dealing with these organizations, so far there has been no official recognition by Pakistan of the new Taliban government, but relations and consultations indicate a realistic recognition of the Taliban by Pakistan.

     As for Turkey, it has no direct vital interests, such as China and Iran, but the presence of tribes of Turkish origin can revive the idea of reviving its annexation to the League of Turkish Peoples, and what matters to Turkey in the Afghan case is its economic and commercial expansion.

     The return of the Taliban to rule will affect the extremist movements positively, by supporting their narrative of their victory over the most powerful country in the world. Despite the global experience in combating terrorism, the most likely possibility is that the Taliban will seek to benefit from its previous experience and control the internal security situation in Afghanistan to obtain international recognition, make political settlements with all parties, change its image, obtain international aid and legitimize its rule.

     The opinions and discussions of researchers about the Afghan scene after the return of the Taliban to power varied, as researchers believe that there is still a high economic gap between the United States and China, and the United States is still present and active in the Afghan scene, as well as the Pakistani influence is present and effective in intelligence in the Taliban, and the Taliban’s current situation still depending on what the international actors want from them and will not allow them to dominate the scene now, and this depends on the behavior of the Taliban in the next phase. However, there is a possibility to reproduce the Taliban’s climate in its old version, which is still available with the support of the United States, which wants to employ this matter in its favor. As for the challenge the real Taliban lies in internal cohesion in the coming stage, as it is expected to work on exchanging domestic policy with foreign to arrange the internal house of its regime, obtain international recognition, lift financial restrictions on its leaders, obtain economic aid, and legitimize its rule.

      Shanikat answered various questions from the audience about the Afghan scene after the Taliban’s return to power and saw that the indicators go towards a change in the Taliban’s approach to governance to gain international recognition, and this requires guarantees from them for the sake of internal security stability in Afghanistan and the preservation of the bureaucratic apparatus of the previous government. As for the challenge the biggest challenge for the Taliban lies in how the Taliban transformed from a jihadist movement to a state governed by real and effective institutions and agencies. However, there are no clear perceptions and details for the Taliban about the effective method of governance in the next stage. As for China’s role in the next stage of the Taliban, its steady and rapid economic rise reinforces this. The role is aimed at establishing major economic projects and ensuring that a haven is not created for the Uyghur minority by the Taliban. As for the role of Pakistan, the active and powerful role will remain militarily and intelligence in the Afghan scene because Afghanistan is its back garden in Pakistan’s foreign policy. For the United States, there is no fundamental change in the administrations’ visions The United States recently discussed the human rights file and will not support real democratic change in Afghanistan Any threats from the Taliban would require strengthening the means of communication and international control over the Taliban. As for the reproduction and spawning of extremist jihadist organizations in the Arab region, this is unlikely. It is assumed that the Taliban benefited from its previous lesson and became more pragmatic and seeks to arrange its internal home, obtain international recognition and change its image. As a haven for those extremist movements.